mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Continuous ageing trajectory representations for knee-aware lifetime prediction of lithium-ion batteries across heterogeneous dataset

arXiv 2604.16580 ↗First posted 17 Apr 2026cs.LG cs.AIcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate assessment of lithium-ion battery ageing is challenged by cell-to-cell variability, heterogeneous cycling protocols, and limited transferability of data-driven models across datasets. In particular, robust identification of degradation transitions, such as the knee point, and reliable early-life prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) remain open problems. This study proposes a unified framework for battery ageing analysis based on continuous representations of voltage-capacity and capacity-cycle trajectories learned from heterogeneous public datasets (NASA, CALCE, ISU-ILCC). The continuous formulation enables consistent extraction of degradation descriptors, including curvature, plateau length and knee-related metrics, while reducing sensitivity to dataset-specific discretisation. Across more than 250 cells, statistically significant correlations between knee onset and end-of-life (Pearson 0.75-0.84) are observed. Additional early-life analysis confirms that knee-related features retain predictive value when estimated from partial trajectories. Early-life models provide increasingly stable RUL predictions as the number of observed cycles increases, with meaningful predictive performance emerging within the first 5-20 cycles and remain robust under cross-dataset domain shift. The framework integrates continuous modelling, feature extraction and uncertainty-aware prediction, providing an interpretable and dataset-consistent approach demonstrating robustness across heterogeneous dataset types. Compared with conventional discrete or feature-based methods, the proposed representation reduces sensitivity to sampling resolution and improves cross-dataset consistency. The study is limited to laboratory-scale datasets and capacity-based end-of-life definitions.

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References · 8

  1. 2015Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learningcited by 4,448
  2. 2019DeepSDF: Learning Continuous Signed Distance Functions for Shape Representationcited by 2,689
  3. 2017What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?cited by 2,352
  4. 2020Implicit Neural Representations with Periodic Activation Functionscited by 2,238
  5. 2020Fourier Features Let Networks Learn High Frequency Functions in Low Dimensional Domainscited by 2,200
  6. 2018Occupancy Networks: Learning 3D Reconstruction in Function Spacecited by 2,041
  7. 2018Accurate Uncertainties for Deep Learning Using Calibrated Regressioncited by 422
  8. 2025Lithium-ion battery degradation: Introducing the concept of reservoirs to design for lifetimecited by 1

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