ScoringBench: A Benchmark for Evaluating Tabular Foundation Models with Proper Scoring Rules
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Abstract (arXiv)
Tabular foundation models such as TabPFN and TabICL already produce full predictive distributions, yet prevailing regression benchmarks evaluate them almost exclusively via point-estimate metrics (RMSE, R2). This discards precisely the distributional information these models are designed to provide - a critical gap for high-stakes domains where not all kinds of errors are equally costly. We introduce ScoringBench, an open and extensible benchmark that evaluates tabular regression models under a comprehensive suite of proper scoring rules - including CRPS, CRLS, interval score, energy score, and weighted CRPS - alongside standard point metrics. ScoringBench covers 97 regression datasets from diverse domains, supports transparent community contributions via a git-based leaderboard, and provides two complementary ranking protocols: an ordinal Demsar/autorank approach and a magnitude-preserving z-score ranking approach. Evaluating several models - spanning in-context learners, fine-tuned foundation models, gradient-boosted trees, and MLPs - we find that model rankings shift substantially depending on the scoring rule: models that excel on point-estimate metrics can rank poorly on probabilistic ones, and the top-performing model under one proper scoring rule may rank noticeably lower under another. These results demonstrate that the choice of evaluation metric is not a technicality but a modelling decision - and, for applications where e.g. tail errors are disproportionately costly, a domain-specific requirement with direct consequences for model deployment.
Key facts. Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 19 of its 60 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 31 Mar 2026.
Builds on
19 of 60 references.
References · 19
- 2022TabPFN: A Transformer That Solves Small Tabular Classification Problems in a Secondcited by 643
- 2014OpenML: networked science in machine learningcited by 523
- 2025TabArena: A Living Benchmark for Machine Learning on Tabular Datacited by 152
- 2017PMLB: A Large Benchmark Suite for Machine Learning Evaluation and Comparisoncited by 139
- 2025TabPFN-2.5: Advancing the State of the Art in Tabular Foundation Modelscited by 115
- 2026TabICLv2: A better, faster, scalable, and open tabular foundation modelcited by 112
- 2024TabM: Advancing Tabular Deep Learning with Parameter-Efficient Ensemblingcited by 105
- 2024Better by Default: Strong Pre-Tuned MLPs and Boosted Trees on Tabular Datacited by 87
- 2022AMLB: an AutoML Benchmarkcited by 55
- 2024TALENT: A Tabular Analytics and Learning Toolboxcited by 46
- 2025Real-TabPFN: Improving Tabular Foundation Models via Continued Pre-training With Real-World Datacited by 36
- 2023A Large-Scale Study of Probabilistic Calibration in Neural Network Regressioncited by 26
7 more
- 2016Nonparametric Conditional Density Estimation in a High-Dimensional Regression Settingcited by 20
- 2025Proper scoring rules for estimation and forecast evaluationcited by 18
- 2019XGBoostLSS -- An extension of XGBoost to probabilistic forecastingcited by 11
- 2016A New Family of Divergences Originating from Model Adequacy Tests and Application to Robust Statistical Inferencecited by 3
- 2026Benchmarking Tabular Foundation Models for Conditional Density Estimation in Regressioncited by 3
- 2026Joint Optimization of Neural Autoregressors via Scoring rulescited by 2
- 2026Distributional Regression with Tabular Foundation Models: Evaluating Probabilistic Predictions via Proper Scoring Rulescited by 1
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Citing papers per year: 2026: 4.
4 papers.
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- 2026LoopICL: Looping a single transformer block to solve tabular tasks28 Sep 2026
- 2026Causilo Technical Report19 Sep 2026
- 2026EXAONE Tabular 1.0 : Technical Report26 Aug 2026
- 2026TabDPT-Turbo: Efficient In-Context Learning for Tabular Prediction2 Aug 2026