mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

ScoringBench: A Benchmark for Evaluating Tabular Foundation Models with Proper Scoring Rules

arXiv 2603.29928 ↗First posted 31 Mar 2026cs.AIcited by 4

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Abstract (arXiv)

Tabular foundation models such as TabPFN and TabICL already produce full predictive distributions, yet prevailing regression benchmarks evaluate them almost exclusively via point-estimate metrics (RMSE, R2). This discards precisely the distributional information these models are designed to provide - a critical gap for high-stakes domains where not all kinds of errors are equally costly. We introduce ScoringBench, an open and extensible benchmark that evaluates tabular regression models under a comprehensive suite of proper scoring rules - including CRPS, CRLS, interval score, energy score, and weighted CRPS - alongside standard point metrics. ScoringBench covers 97 regression datasets from diverse domains, supports transparent community contributions via a git-based leaderboard, and provides two complementary ranking protocols: an ordinal Demsar/autorank approach and a magnitude-preserving z-score ranking approach. Evaluating several models - spanning in-context learners, fine-tuned foundation models, gradient-boosted trees, and MLPs - we find that model rankings shift substantially depending on the scoring rule: models that excel on point-estimate metrics can rank poorly on probabilistic ones, and the top-performing model under one proper scoring rule may rank noticeably lower under another. These results demonstrate that the choice of evaluation metric is not a technicality but a modelling decision - and, for applications where e.g. tail errors are disproportionately costly, a domain-specific requirement with direct consequences for model deployment.

Key facts. Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 19 of its 60 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 31 Mar 2026.

Builds on

19 of 60 references.

References · 19

  1. 2022TabPFN: A Transformer That Solves Small Tabular Classification Problems in a Secondcited by 643
  2. 2014OpenML: networked science in machine learningcited by 523
  3. 2025TabArena: A Living Benchmark for Machine Learning on Tabular Datacited by 152
  4. 2017PMLB: A Large Benchmark Suite for Machine Learning Evaluation and Comparisoncited by 139
  5. 2025TabPFN-2.5: Advancing the State of the Art in Tabular Foundation Modelscited by 115
  6. 2026TabICLv2: A better, faster, scalable, and open tabular foundation modelcited by 112
  7. 2024TabM: Advancing Tabular Deep Learning with Parameter-Efficient Ensemblingcited by 105
  8. 2024Better by Default: Strong Pre-Tuned MLPs and Boosted Trees on Tabular Datacited by 87
  9. 2022AMLB: an AutoML Benchmarkcited by 55
  10. 2024TALENT: A Tabular Analytics and Learning Toolboxcited by 46
  11. 2025Real-TabPFN: Improving Tabular Foundation Models via Continued Pre-training With Real-World Datacited by 36
  12. 2023A Large-Scale Study of Probabilistic Calibration in Neural Network Regressioncited by 26
7 more
  1. 2016Nonparametric Conditional Density Estimation in a High-Dimensional Regression Settingcited by 20
  2. 2025Proper scoring rules for estimation and forecast evaluationcited by 18
  3. 2019XGBoostLSS -- An extension of XGBoost to probabilistic forecastingcited by 11
  4. 2016A New Family of Divergences Originating from Model Adequacy Tests and Application to Robust Statistical Inferencecited by 3
  5. 2026Benchmarking Tabular Foundation Models for Conditional Density Estimation in Regressioncited by 3
  6. 2026Joint Optimization of Neural Autoregressors via Scoring rulescited by 2
  7. 2026Distributional Regression with Tabular Foundation Models: Evaluating Probabilistic Predictions via Proper Scoring Rulescited by 1

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