Scaling In, Not Up? Testing Thick Citation Context Analysis with GPT-5 and Fragile Prompts

This paper tests whether large language models (LLMs) can support interpretative citation context analysis (CCA) by scaling in thick, text-grounded readings of a single hard case rather than scaling up typological labels. It foregrounds prompt-sensitivity analysis as a methodological issue by varying prompt scaffolding and framing in a balanced 2x3 design. Using footnote 6 in Chubin and Moitra (1975) and Gilbert's (1977) reconstruction as a probe, I implement a two-stage GPT-5 pipeline: a citation-text-only surface classification and expectation pass, followed by cross-document interpretative reconstruction using the citing and cited full texts. Across 90 reconstructions, the model produces 450 distinct hypotheses. Close reading and inductive coding identify 21 recurring interpretative moves, and linear probability models estimate how prompt choices shift their frequencies and lexical repertoire. GPT-5's surface pass is highly stable, consistently classifying the citation as "supplementary". In reconstruction, the model generates a structured space of plausible alternatives, but scaffolding and examples redistribute attention and vocabulary, sometimes toward strained readings. Relative to Gilbert, GPT-5 detects the same textual hinges yet more often resolves them as lineage and positioning than as admonishment. The study outlines opportunities and risks of using LLMs as guided co-analysts for inspectable, contestable interpretative CCA, and it shows that prompt scaffolding and framing systematically tilt which plausible readings and vocabularies the model foregrounds.