mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Coarsening Bias from Variable Discretization in Causal Functionals

arXiv 2602.22083 ↗First posted 25 Feb 2026stat.ME cs.LG stat.MLcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Causal identification functionals often require integration over conditional densities of continuous variables, such as those arising in nonparametric identification theory of total and mediated causal effects in DAGs with hidden variables. Estimating these densities and evaluating the resulting integrals can be statistically and computationally demanding. A common workaround is to discretize the continuous variable and replace integrals with finite sums. Although convenient, discretization alters the population-level functional and can induce non-negligible approximation bias, even when identification is correct. Under smoothness conditions, we show that the resulting coarsening error is first order in the bin width and arises at the level of the target functional, distinct from statistical estimation error. We propose a simple debiased coarsened functional that evaluates the outcome regression at within-bin conditional means, eliminating the leading coarsening error term and yielding a second-order approximation error. We derive plug-in and one-step estimators for this debiased coarsened functional. Simulations demonstrate substantial bias reduction and near-nominal confidence interval coverage, even under coarse binning. Our results provide a simple framework for controlling the impact of variable discretization on both parameter approximation and statistical estimation.

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References · 9

  1. 2013Direct and Indirect Effectscited by 276
  2. 2017Nested Markov Properties for Acyclic Directed Mixed Graphscited by 38
  3. 2020Semiparametric Inference For Causal Effects In Graphical Models With Hidden Variablescited by 23
  4. 2020Semiparametric Estimation for Causal Mediation Analysis with Multiple Causally Ordered Mediatorscited by 6
  5. 2023Targeted Maximum Likelihood Based Estimation for Longitudinal Mediation Analysiscited by 4
  6. 2023Flexible Nonparametric Inference for Causal Effects under the Front-Door Modelcited by 3
  7. 2024Average Causal Effect Estimation in DAGs with Hidden Variables: Beyond Back-Door and Front-Door Criteriacited by 3
  8. 2025Causal Inference with the Napkin Graphcited by 3
  9. 2025Ratio of Mediator Probability Weighting for Estimating Natural Direct and Indirect Effectscited by 2

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