mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Validating Political Position Predictions of Arguments

arXiv 2602.18351 ↗First posted 20 Feb 2026cs.CL cs.AIcited by 1

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Abstract (arXiv)

Real-world knowledge representation often requires capturing subjective, continuous attributes -- such as political positions -- that conflict with pairwise validation, the widely accepted gold standard for human evaluation. We address this challenge through a dual-scale validation framework applied to political stance prediction in argumentative discourse, combining pointwise and pairwise human annotation. Using 22 language models, we construct a large-scale knowledge base of political position predictions for 23,228 arguments drawn from 30 debates that appeared on the UK politicial television programme textitQuestion Time. Pointwise evaluation shows moderate human-model agreement (Krippendorff's α=0.578), reflecting intrinsic subjectivity, while pairwise validation reveals substantially stronger alignment between human- and model-derived rankings (α=0.86 for the best model). This work contributes: (i) a practical validation methodology for subjective continuous knowledge that balances scalability with reliability; (ii) a validated structured argumentation knowledge base enabling graph-based reasoning and retrieval-augmented generation in political domains; and (iii) evidence that ordinal structure can be extracted from pointwise language models predictions from inherently subjective real-world discourse, advancing knowledge representation capabilities for domains where traditional symbolic or categorical approaches are insufficient.

Key facts. Cited by 1 paper in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 9 of its 46 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 20 Feb 2026.

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9 of 46 references.

References · 9

  1. 2019BERTScore: Evaluating Text Generation with BERTcited by 5,462
  2. 2017Deep reinforcement learning from human preferencescited by 3,846
  3. 2024Humans or LLMs as the Judge? A Study on Judgement Biasescited by 314
  4. 2023HuatuoGPT, towards Taming Language Model to Be a Doctorcited by 211
  5. 2023CMB: A Comprehensive Medical Benchmark in Chinesecited by 113
  6. 2025Rating Roulette: Self-Inconsistency in LLM-As-A-Judge Frameworkscited by 37
  7. 2023Large Language Models Can Be Used to Estimate the Latent Positions of Politicianscited by 33
  8. 2024Beyond correlation: The Impact of Human Uncertainty in Measuring the Effectiveness of Automatic Evaluation and LLM-as-a-Judgecited by 29
  9. 2023Positioning Political Texts with Large Language Models by Asking and Averagingcited by 13

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  1. 2026Argument Quality Assessment with Large Language Models: A Pairwise Bradley-Terry Approach
  2. 2026When Roles Fail: Epistemic Constraints on Advocate Role Fidelity in LLM-Based Political Statement Analysis
  3. 2025DebateBench: A Challenging Long Context Reasoning Benchmark For Large Language Models
  4. 2026Political Alignment in Large Language Models: A Multidimensional Audit of Psychometric Identity and Behavioral Bias
  5. 2025Examining Alignment of Large Language Models through Representative Heuristics: The Case of Political Stereotypes
  6. 2024Debating with More Persuasive LLMs Leads to More Truthful Answers
  7. 2024GermanPartiesQA: Benchmarking Commercial Large Language Models and AI Companions for Political Alignment and Sycophancy
  8. 2025PReSS: An Automated Black-Box Framework for Evaluating Political Stance Stability in LLMs