Why Code, Why Now: An Information-Theoretic Perspective on the Limits of Machine Learning
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Abstract (arXiv)
This paper offers a new perspective on the limits of machine learning: the ceiling on progress is set not by model size or algorithm choice but by the information structure of the task itself. Code generation has progressed more reliably than reinforcement learning, largely because code provides dense, local, verifiable feedback at every token, whereas most reinforcement learning problems do not. This difference in feedback quality is not binary but graded. We propose a five-level hierarchy of learnability based on information structure and argue that diagnosing a task's position in this hierarchy is more predictive of scaling outcomes than any property of the model. The hierarchy rests on a formal distinction among three properties of computational problems (expressibility, computability, and learnability). We establish their pairwise relationships, including where implications hold and where they fail, and present a unified template that makes the structural differences explicit. The analysis suggests why supervised learning on code scales predictably while reinforcement learning does not, and why the common assumption that scaling alone will solve remaining ML challenges warrants scrutiny.
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References · 17
- 2021Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Codecited by 8,053
- 2020Scaling Laws for Neural Language Modelscited by 6,411
- 2023Let's Verify Step by Stepcited by 3,598
- 2020Shortcut Learning in Deep Neural Networkscited by 1,928
- 2020Performative Predictioncited by 318
- 2013Non-stationary Stochastic Optimizationcited by 173
- 2018Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Lawcited by 132
- 2024Deep Generative Models through the Lens of the Manifold Hypothesis: A Survey and New Connectionscited by 47
- 2024Language Generation in the Limitcited by 39
- 2023Goodhart's Law in Reinforcement Learningcited by 37
- 2024Generation through the lens of learning theorycited by 30
- 2024Hardness of Learning Neural Networks under the Manifold Hypothesiscited by 18
5 more
- 2024On Goodhart's law, with an application to value alignmentcited by 9
- 2025Language Generation: Complexity Barriers and Implications for Learningcited by 9
- 2024Positional Attention: Expressivity and Learnability of Algorithmic Computationcited by 7
- 2025Necessary and Sufficient Oracles: Toward a Computational Taxonomy For Reinforcement Learningcited by 3
- 2025On The Statistical Limits of Self-Improving Agentscited by 3
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