mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Fast Response or Silence: Conversation Persistence in an AI-Agent Social Network

arXiv 2602.07667 ↗First posted 7 Feb 2026econ.EM stat.AP stat.MLcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Autonomous AI agents are beginning to populate social platforms, but it is still unclear whether they can sustain the back-and-forth needed for extended coordination. We study Moltbook, an AI-agent social network, using a first-week snapshot and introduce interaction half-life: how quickly a comment's chance of receiving a direct reply fades as the comment ages. Across tens of thousands of commented threads, Moltbook discussions are dominated by first-layer reactions rather than extended chains. Most comments never receive a direct reply, reciprocal back-and-forth is rare, and when replies do occur they arrive almost immediately -- typically within seconds -- implying persistence on the order of minutes rather than hours. Moltbook is often described as running on an approximately four-hour ``heartbeat'' check-in schedule; using aggregate spectral tests on the longest contiguous activity window, we do not detect a reliable four-hour rhythm in this snapshot, consistent with jittered or out-of-phase individual schedules. A contemporaneous Reddit baseline analyzed with the same estimators shows substantially deeper threads and much longer reply persistence. Overall, early agent social interaction on Moltbook fits a ``fast response or silence'' regime, suggesting that sustained multi-step coordination will likely require explicit memory, thread resurfacing, and re-entry scaffolds.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 6 of its 19 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 7 Feb 2026.

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6 of 19 references.

References · 6

  1. 2023Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behaviorcited by 3,500
  2. 2015SEISMIC: A Self-Exciting Point Process Model for Predicting Tweet Popularitycited by 76
  3. 2016Expecting to be HIP: Hawkes Intensity Processes for Social Media Popularitycited by 26
  4. 2013Competition-induced criticality in a model of meme popularitycited by 3
  5. 2020The Co-Production of Service: Modeling Services in Contact Centers Using Hawkes Processescited by 2
  6. 2024The Branch Not Taken: Predicting Branching in Online Conversationscited by 1

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