When Does Adaptation Win? Scaling Laws for Meta-Learning in Quantum Control

Quantum hardware suffers from intrinsic device heterogeneity and environmental drift, forcing practitioners to choose between suboptimal non-adaptive controllers or costly per-device recalibration. We derive a scaling law lower bound for meta-learning showing that the adaptation gain (expected fidelity improvement from task-specific gradient steps) saturates exponentially with gradient steps and scales linearly with task variance, providing a quantitative criterion for when adaptation justifies its overhead. Validation on quantum gate calibration shows negligible benefits for low-variance tasks but >40% fidelity gains on two-qubit gates under extreme out-of-distribution conditions (10× the training noise), with implications for reducing per-device calibration time on cloud quantum processors. Further validation on classical linear-quadratic control confirms these laws emerge from general optimization geometry rather than quantum-specific physics. We further introduce a few-shot pre-adaptation protocol that estimates the optimal adaptation budget from N=3-5 probe steps within 3-19% relative error across out-of-distribution regimes.