The 17% Gap: Quantifying Epistemic Decay in AI-Assisted Survey Papers
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Abstract (arXiv)
The adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) in scientific writing promises efficiency but risks introducing informational entropy. While "hallucinated papers" are a known artifact, the systematic degradation of valid citation chains remains unquantified. We conducted a forensic audit of 50 recent survey papers in Artificial Intelligence (N=5,514 citations) published between September 2024 and January 2026. We utilized a hybrid verification pipeline combining DOI resolution, Crossref metadata analysis, Semantic Scholar queries, and fuzzy text matching to distinguish between formatting errors ("Sloppiness") and verifiable non-existence ("Phantoms). We detect a persistent 17.0% Phantom Rate -- citations that cannot be resolved to any digital object despite aggressive forensic recovery. Diagnostic categorization reveals three distinct failure modes: pure hallucinations (5.1%), hallucinated identifiers with valid titles (16.4%), and parsing-induced matching failures (78.5%). Longitudinal analysis reveals a flat trend (+0.07 pp/month), suggesting that high-entropy citation practices have stabilized as an endemic feature of the field. The scientific citation graph in AI survey literature exhibits "link rot" at scale. This suggests a mechanism where AI tools act as "lazy research assistants," retrieving correct titles but hallucinating metadata, thereby severing the digital chain of custody required for reproducible science.
Key facts. Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 3 of its 14 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 24 Jan 2026.
Builds on
3 of 14 references.
References · 3
- 2020Language Models are Few-Shot Learnerscited by 32,419
- 2022Survey of Hallucination in Natural Language Generationcited by 2,075
- 2014Growth rates of modern science: A bibliometric analysis based on the number of publications and cited referencescited by 64
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Citing papers per year: 2026: 2.
2 papers.