A Probabilistic Approach to Trajectory-Based Optimal Experimental Design

We present a novel probabilistic approach for optimal experimental path design. In this approach a discrete path optimization problem is defined on a static navigation mesh, and trajectories are modeled as random variables governed by a parametric Markov policy. The discrete path optimization problem is then replaced with an equivalent stochastic optimization problem over the policy parameters, resulting in an optimal probability model that samples estimates of the optimal discrete path. This approach enables exploration of the utility function's distribution tail and treats the utility function of the design as a black box, making it applicable to linear and nonlinear inverse problems and beyond experimental design. Numerical verification and analysis are carried out by using a parameter identification problem widely used in model-based optimal experimental design, namely a two-dimensional time-dependent advection diffusion problem in which the initial condition is the inference target. Experiments use both coarse and fine navigation meshes, with either a single moving sensor or a group of seven coordinated sensors, and the proposed approach is evaluated under D-, A-, and E-optimality criteria.