Dynamic Intelligence Ceilings: Measuring Long-Horizon Limits of Planning and Creativity in Artificial Systems

Recent advances in artificial intelligence have produced systems capable of remarkable performance across a wide range of tasks. These gains, however, are increasingly accompanied by concerns regarding long-horizon developmental behavior, as many systems converge toward repetitive solution patterns rather than sustained growth. We argue that a central limitation of contemporary AI systems lies not in capability per se, but in the premature fixation of their performance frontier. To address this issue, we introduce the concept of a Dynamic Intelligence Ceiling (DIC), defined as the highest level of effective intelligence attainable by a system at a given time under its current resources, internal intent, and structural configuration. To make this notion empirically tractable, we propose a trajectory-centric evaluation framework that measures intelligence as a moving frontier rather than a static snapshot. We operationalize DIC using two estimators: the Progressive Difficulty Ceiling (PDC), which captures the maximal reliably solvable difficulty under constrained resources, and the Ceiling Drift Rate (CDR), which quantifies the temporal evolution of this frontier. These estimators are instantiated through a procedurally generated benchmark that jointly evaluates long-horizon planning and structural creativity within a single controlled environment. Our results reveal a qualitative distinction between systems that deepen exploitation within a fixed solution manifold and those that sustain frontier expansion over time. Importantly, our framework does not posit unbounded intelligence, but reframes limits as dynamic and trajectory-dependent rather than static and prematurely fixed. vspace0.5em noindentKeywords: AI evaluation, planning and creativity, developmental intelligence, dynamic intelligence ceilings, complex adaptive systems