StockBot 2.0: Vanilla LSTMs Outperform Transformer-based Forecasting for Stock Prices
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Abstract (arXiv)
Accurate forecasting of financial markets remains a long-standing challenge due to complex temporal and often latent dependencies, non-linear dynamics, and high volatility. Building on our earlier recurrent neural network framework, we present an enhanced StockBot architecture that systematically evaluates modern attention-based, convolutional, and recurrent time-series forecasting models within a unified experimental setting. While attention-based and transformer-inspired models offer increased modeling flexibility, extensive empirical evaluation reveals that a carefully constructed vanilla LSTM consistently achieves superior predictive accuracy and more stable buy/sell decision-making when trained under a common set of default hyperparameters. These results highlight the robustness and data efficiency of recurrent sequence models for financial time-series forecasting, particularly in the absence of extensive hyperparameter tuning or the availability of sufficient data when discretized to single-day intervals. Additionally, these results underscore the importance of architectural inductive bias in data-limited market prediction tasks.
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References · 2
- 2017Attention Is All You Needcited by 60,361
- 2016Temporal Convolutional Networks for Action Segmentation and Detectioncited by 508
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