mlsanityData to 13 Oct 2026

Interpreting and Mitigating Unwanted Uncertainty in LLMs

arXiv 2510.22866 ↗First posted 26 Oct 2025cs.CL cs.LGcited by 2

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Abstract (arXiv)

Despite their impressive capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit unwanted uncertainty, a phenomenon where a model changes a previously correct answer into an incorrect one when re-prompted. This behavior undermines trust and poses serious risks in high-stakes domains. In this work, we investigate the mechanisms that drive this phenomenon. We adapt the Needle-in-a-Haystack retrieval framework and integrate a Flip-style re-evaluation prompt to simulate realistic answer-flipping scenarios. We find that retrieval heads are not primarily responsible for avoiding uncertainty. Instead, we identify a small set of non-retrieval attention heads that disproportionately attend to misleading tokens in uncertain contexts. Masking these heads yields significant improvements, reducing flip behavior by up to 15% without introducing incoherence or overcorrection. However, when tested for downstream tasks, we observe trade-offs with flip behavior. Our findings contribute to the growing field of mechanistic interpretability and present a simple yet effective technique for mitigating uncertainty-driven failure modes in LLMs.

Key facts. Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 13 Oct 2026). Builds on 8 of its 14 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 26 Oct 2025.

Builds on

8 of 14 references.

References · 8

  1. 2023Towards Understanding Sycophancy in Language Modelscited by 1,018
  2. 2023A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Modelscited by 255
  3. 2024Retrieval Head Mechanistically Explains Long-Context Factualitycited by 224
  4. 2020Reducing conversational agents' overconfidence through linguistic calibrationcited by 209
  5. 2024Taming Overconfidence in LLMs: Reward Calibration in RLHFcited by 108
  6. 2023Are You Sure? Challenging LLMs Leads to Performance Drops in The FlipFlop Experimentcited by 74
  7. 2024InternalInspector I2: Robust Confidence Estimation in LLMs through Internal Statescited by 30
  8. 2024Towards Uncovering How Large Language Model Works: An Explainability Perspectivecited by 22

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Citing papers per year: 2026: 2.

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  1. 2025Can LLMs Detect Their Confabulations? Estimating Reliability in Uncertainty-Aware Language Models
  2. 2026From Answers to Interpretations: Rethinking Ambiguity-Induced Aleatoric Uncertainty Estimation in LLMs
  3. 2023Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Explanations of Large Language Models
  4. 2026Can LLMs Take Retrieved Information with a Grain of Salt?
  5. 2026Same Question, Different Answers: Evaluating LLM Reliability Beyond Accuracy
  6. 2024Exploring Response Uncertainty in MLLMs: An Empirical Evaluation under Misleading Scenarios
  7. 2026Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents: A Taxonomy, an Evaluation Protocol, and an Empirical Study
  8. 2025Sample Smart, Not Hard: Correctness-First Decoding for Better Reasoning in LLMs