Interpreting and Mitigating Unwanted Uncertainty in LLMs
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Abstract (arXiv)
Despite their impressive capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit unwanted uncertainty, a phenomenon where a model changes a previously correct answer into an incorrect one when re-prompted. This behavior undermines trust and poses serious risks in high-stakes domains. In this work, we investigate the mechanisms that drive this phenomenon. We adapt the Needle-in-a-Haystack retrieval framework and integrate a Flip-style re-evaluation prompt to simulate realistic answer-flipping scenarios. We find that retrieval heads are not primarily responsible for avoiding uncertainty. Instead, we identify a small set of non-retrieval attention heads that disproportionately attend to misleading tokens in uncertain contexts. Masking these heads yields significant improvements, reducing flip behavior by up to 15% without introducing incoherence or overcorrection. However, when tested for downstream tasks, we observe trade-offs with flip behavior. Our findings contribute to the growing field of mechanistic interpretability and present a simple yet effective technique for mitigating uncertainty-driven failure modes in LLMs.
Key facts. Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 13 Oct 2026). Builds on 8 of its 14 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 26 Oct 2025.
Builds on
8 of 14 references.
References · 8
- 2023Towards Understanding Sycophancy in Language Modelscited by 1,018
- 2023A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Modelscited by 255
- 2024Retrieval Head Mechanistically Explains Long-Context Factualitycited by 224
- 2020Reducing conversational agents' overconfidence through linguistic calibrationcited by 209
- 2024Taming Overconfidence in LLMs: Reward Calibration in RLHFcited by 108
- 2023Are You Sure? Challenging LLMs Leads to Performance Drops in The FlipFlop Experimentcited by 74
- 2024InternalInspector I2: Robust Confidence Estimation in LLMs through Internal Statescited by 30
- 2024Towards Uncovering How Large Language Model Works: An Explainability Perspectivecited by 22
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Citing papers per year: 2026: 2.
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