Ensembling Large Language Models to Characterize Affective Dynamics in Student-AI Tutor Dialogues

While recent studies have examined the leaning impact of large language model (LLM) in educational contexts, the affective dynamics of LLM-mediated tutoring remain insufficiently understood. This work introduces the first ensemble-LLM framework for large-scale affect sensing in tutoring dialogues, advancing the conversation on responsible pathways for integrating generative AI into education by attending to learners' evolving affective states. To achieve this, we analyzed two semesters' worth of 16,986 conversational turns exchanged between PyTutor, an LLM-powered AI tutor, and 261 undergraduate learners across three U.S. institutions. To investigate learners' emotional experiences, we generate zero-shot affect annotations from three frontier LLMs (Gemini, GPT-4o, Claude), including scalar ratings of valence, arousal, and learning-helpfulness, along with free-text emotion labels. These estimates are fused through rank-weighted intra-model pooling and plurality consensus across models to produce robust emotion profiles. Our analysis shows that during interaction with the AI tutor, students typically report mildly positive affect and moderate arousal. Yet learning is not uniformly smooth: confusion and curiosity are frequent companions to problem solving, and frustration, while less common, still surfaces in ways that can derail progress. Emotional states are short-lived--positive moments last slightly longer than neutral or negative ones, but they are fragile and easily disrupted. Encouragingly, negative emotions often resolve quickly, sometimes rebounding directly into positive states. Neutral moments frequently act as turning points, more often steering students upward than downward, suggesting opportunities for tutors to intervene at precisely these junctures.