mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Neural Optimal Transport Meets Multivariate Conformal Prediction

arXiv 2509.25444 ↗First posted 29 Sep 2025stat.ML cs.LGcited by 2

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Abstract (arXiv)

We propose a framework for conditional vector quantile regression (CVQR) that combines neural optimal transport with amortized optimization, and apply it to multivariate conformal prediction. Classical quantile regression does not extend naturally to multivariate responses, while existing approaches often ignore the geometry of joint distributions. Our method parametrizes the conditional vector quantile function as the gradient of a convex potential implemented by an input-convex neural network, ensuring monotonicity and uniform ranks. To reduce the cost of solving high-dimensional variational problems, we introduced amortized optimization of the dual potentials, yielding efficient training and faster inference. We then exploit the induced multivariate ranks for conformal prediction, constructing distribution-free predictive regions with finite-sample validity. Unlike coordinatewise methods, our approach adapts to the geometry of the conditional distribution, producing tighter and more informative regions. Experiments on benchmark datasets show improved coverage-efficiency trade-offs compared to baselines, highlighting the benefits of integrating neural optimal transport with conformal prediction.

Key facts. Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 27 of its 56 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 29 Sep 2025.

Builds on

27 of 56 references.

References · 27

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  2. 2018Glow: Generative Flow with Invertible 1x1 Convolutionscited by 1,545
  3. 2019Conformalized Quantile Regressioncited by 629
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  9. 2021Do Neural Optimal Transport Solvers Work? A Continuous Wasserstein-2 Benchmarkcited by 96
  10. 2020Convex Potential Flows: Universal Probability Distributions with Optimal Transport and Convex Optimizationcited by 90
  11. 2020CD-split and HPD-split: efficient conformal regions in high dimensionscited by 76
  12. 2022Supervised Training of Conditional Monge Mapscited by 61
15 more
  1. 2021Copula-based conformal prediction for Multi-Target Regressioncited by 53
  2. 2021Calibrated Multiple-Output Quantile Regression with Representation Learningcited by 50
  3. 2021Conformal Uncertainty Sets for Robust Optimizationcited by 49
  4. 2022Probabilistic Conformal Prediction Using Conditional Random Samplescited by 47
  5. 20192-Wasserstein Approximation via Restricted Convex Potentials with Application to Improved Training for GANscited by 33
  6. 2022On amortizing convex conjugates for optimal transportcited by 31
  7. 2025Minimum Volume Conformal Sets for Multivariate Regressioncited by 27
  8. 2025A Unified Comparative Study with Generalized Conformity Scores for Multi-Output Conformal Regressioncited by 24
  9. 2025Multivariate Conformal Prediction using Optimal Transportcited by 22
  10. 2025Optimal Transport-based Conformal Predictioncited by 20
  11. 2025Rectifying Conformity Scores for Better Conditional Coveragecited by 17
  12. 2022Deep Non-Crossing Quantiles through the Partial Derivativecited by 12
  13. 2022Fast Nonlinear Vector Quantile Regressioncited by 12
  14. 2022Nonparametric Multiple-Output Center-Outward Quantile Regressioncited by 11
  15. 2023Conformalized Deep Splines for Optimal and Efficient Prediction Setscited by 5

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