Not Everyone Wins with LLMs: Behavioral Patterns and Pedagogical Implications for AI Literacy in Programmatic Data Science

LLMs promise to democratize technical work in complex domains like programmatic data analysis, but not everyone benefits equally. We study how students with varied experiences use LLMs to complete Python-based data analysis in computational notebooks in a graduate course. Drawing on homework logs, recordings, and surveys from 36 students, we ask: Which experience matters most, and how does it shape AI use? Our mixed-methods analysis shows that technical experience -- not AI familiarity or communication skills -- remains a significant predictor of success. Students also vary widely in how they leverage LLMs, struggling at stages of forming intent, expressing inputs, interpreting outputs, and assessing results. We identify success and failure behaviors, such as providing context or decomposing prompts, that distinguish effective use. These findings inform AI literacy interventions, highlighting that lightweight demonstrations improve surface fluency but are insufficient; deeper training and scaffolds are needed to cultivate resilient AI use skills.