mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Measuring Uncertainty in Transformer Circuits with Effective Information Consistency

arXiv 2509.07149 ↗First posted 8 Sep 2025cs.LG cs.AI cs.CLcited by 2

On the map: Mechanistic interpretability → Circuits and mechanistic analysis

Abstract (arXiv)

Mechanistic interpretability has identified functional subgraphs within large language models (LLMs), known as Transformer Circuits (TCs), that appear to implement specific algorithms. Yet we lack a formal, single-pass way to quantify when an active circuit is behaving coherently and thus likely trustworthy. Building on prior systems-theoretic proposals, we specialize a sheaf/cohomology and causal emergence perspective to TCs and introduce the Effective-Information Consistency Score (EICS). EICS combines (i) a normalized sheaf inconsistency computed from local Jacobians and activations, with (ii) a Gaussian EI proxy for circuit-level causal emergence derived from the same forward state. The construction is white-box, single-pass, and makes units explicit so that the score is dimensionless. We further provide practical guidance on score interpretation, computational overhead (with fast and exact modes), and a toy sanity-check analysis. Empirical validation on LLM tasks is deferred.

Key facts. Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in Circuits and mechanistic analysis, one of 13 directions in Mechanistic interpretability. Builds on 10 of its 15 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 8 Sep 2025.

Builds on

10 of 15 references.

Closest ancestors · 1

Same direction, newest first

  1. 2024Knowledge Circuits in Pretrained Transformers28 May

Other references · 9

  1. 2017On Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 4,960
  2. 2016Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensemblescited by 3,926
  3. 2023A Survey on Hallucination in Large Language Models: Principles, Taxonomy, Challenges, and Open Questionscited by 1,601
  4. 2022In-context Learning and Induction Headscited by 964
  5. 2021A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 792
  6. 2023Does Localization Inform Editing? Surprising Differences in Causality-Based Localization vs. Knowledge Editing in Language Modelscited by 243
  7. 2023Bayesian Low-rank Adaptation for Large Language Modelscited by 115
  8. 2020Reconciling emergences: An information-theoretic approach to identify causal emergence in multivariate datacited by 16
  9. 2025Sheaf-Theoretic Causal Emergence for Resilience Analysis in Distributed Systemscited by 1

Built on by

Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2026: 2.

2 papers.

Similar, not cited

Close in wording, no citation either way

  1. 2026CircuitProbe: Predicting Reasoning Circuits in Transformers via Stability Zone Detection
  2. 2026Align, Unify, Suppress, Route: A Coherentist View of Transformer Computation
  3. 2024Transformer Circuit Faithfulness Metrics are not Robust
  4. 2026Towards Verifiable Transformers: Solver-Checkable Circuit Explanations
  5. 2026Can Language Model Agents be Helpful Circuit Explainers in Mechanistic Interpretability?
  6. 2025Mechanistic Unveiling of Transformer Circuits: Self-Influence as a Key to Model Reasoning
  7. 2025A Theoretical Framework for OOD Robustness in Transformers using Gevrey Classes
  8. 2026Circuit Complexity of Hierarchical Knowledge Tracing and Implications for Log-Precision Transformers