Learned Hallucination Detection in Black-Box LLMs using Token-level Entropy Production Rate

Hallucinations in Large Language Model (LLM) outputs for Question Answering (QA) tasks can critically undermine their real-world reliability. This paper introduces a methodology for robust, one-shot hallucination detection, specifically designed for scenarios with limited data access, such as interacting with black-box LLM APIs that typically expose only a few top candidate log-probabilities per token. Our approach derives uncertainty indicators directly from these readily available log-probabilities generated during non-greedy decoding. We first derive an Entropy Production Rate (EPR) that offers baseline performance, later augmented with supervised learning. Our learned model leverages the entropic contributions of the accessible top-ranked tokens within a single generated sequence, without multiple re-runs per query. Evaluated across diverse QA datasets and multiple LLMs, this estimator significantly improves token-level hallucination detection over state-of-the-art methods. Crucially, high performance is demonstrated using only the typically small set of available log-probabilities (e.g., top-10 per token), confirming its practical efficiency and suitability for API-constrained deployments. This work provides a lightweight technique to enhance the trustworthiness of LLM responses, at the token level, after a single generation pass, for QA and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems. Our experiments confirmed the performance of our method against existing approaches on public dataset as well as for a financial framework analyzing annual company reports.