Unified Flow Matching for Long Horizon Event Forecasting
On the map: Diffusion models → Flow matching, time series and science
Abstract (arXiv)
Modeling long horizon marked event sequences is a fundamental challenge in many real-world applications, including healthcare, finance, and user behavior modeling. Existing neural temporal point process models are typically autoregressive, predicting the next event one step at a time, which limits their efficiency and leads to error accumulation in long-range forecasting. In this work, we propose a unified flow matching framework for marked temporal point processes that enables non-autoregressive, joint modeling of inter-event times and event types, via continuous and discrete flow matching. By learning continuous-time flows for both components, our method generates coherent long horizon event trajectories without sequential decoding. We evaluate our model on six real-world benchmarks and demonstrate significant improvements over autoregressive and diffusion-based baselines in both accuracy and generation efficiency.
Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models. Builds on 12 of its 25 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 6 Aug 2025.
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12 of 25 references.
Closest ancestors · 2
Same direction, newest first
- 2024EventFlow: Forecasting Temporal Point Processes with Flow Matching9 Oct
- 2023Improving and generalizing flow-based generative models with minibatch optimal transport1 Feb
Other references · 10
- 2019Predicting Dynamic Embedding Trajectory in Temporal Interaction Networkscited by 448
- 2019Intensity-Free Learning of Temporal Point Processescited by 140
- 2019Fully Neural Network based Model for General Temporal Point Processescited by 122
- 2021Neural Temporal Point Processes: A Reviewcited by 114
- 2018Learning Tree-based Deep Model for Recommender Systemscited by 99
- 2021Transformer Embeddings of Irregularly Spaced Events and Their Participantscited by 93
- 2022HYPRO: A Hybridly Normalized Probabilistic Model for Long-Horizon Prediction of Event Sequencescited by 57
- 2019Imputing Missing Events in Continuous-Time Event Streamscited by 44
- 2021Long Horizon Forecasting With Temporal Point Processescited by 20
- 2023Interacting Diffusion Processes for Event Sequence Forecastingcited by 10
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- 2025Edit-Based Flow Matching for Temporal Point Processes
- 2025Longitudinal Flow Matching for Trajectory Modeling
- 2023Non-Autoregressive Diffusion-based Temporal Point Processes for Continuous-Time Long-Term Event Prediction
- 2025Probabilistic Forecasting via Autoregressive Flow Matching
- 2025Bridging the Last Mile of Prediction: Enhancing Time Series Forecasting with Conditional Guided Flow Matching
- 2025ADiff4TPP: Asynchronous Diffusion Models for Temporal Point Processes
- 2025Operator Flow Matching for Timeseries Forecasting
- 2025TimeFlow: Towards Stochastic-Aware and Efficient Time Series Generation via Flow Matching Modeling