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Measuring and Analyzing Intelligence via Contextual Uncertainty in Large Language Models using Information-Theoretic Metrics

arXiv 2507.21129 ↗First posted 21 Jul 2025cs.AIcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel on many task-specific benchmarks, yet the mechanisms that drive this success remain poorly understood. We move from asking what these systems can do to asking how they process information. Our contribution is a task-agnostic method that builds a quantitative Cognitive Profile for any model. The profile is built around the Entropy Decay Curve -- a plot of a model's normalised predictive uncertainty as context length grows. Across several state-of-the-art LLMs and diverse texts, the curves expose distinctive, stable profiles that depend on both model scale and text complexity. We also propose the Information Gain Span (IGS) as a single index that summarises the desirability of a decay pattern. Together, these tools offer a principled way to analyse and compare the internal dynamics of modern AI systems.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 10 of its 22 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 21 Jul 2025.

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References · 10

  1. 2017Attention Is All You Needcited by 60,361
  2. 2020Language Models are Few-Shot Learnerscited by 32,419
  3. 2023GPT-4 Technical Reportcited by 18,396
  4. 2025Qwen3 Technical Reportcited by 8,820
  5. 2024Qwen2.5 Technical Reportcited by 4,942
  6. 2021On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Modelscited by 4,033
  7. 2022Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Knowcited by 1,856
  8. 2019How Can We Know What Language Models Know?cited by 959
  9. 2022Quantifying Memorization Across Neural Language Modelscited by 763
  10. 2017Opening the Black Box of Deep Neural Networks via Informationcited by 503

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