mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Property Elicitation on Imprecise Probabilities

arXiv 2507.05857 ↗First posted 8 Jul 2025stat.ML cs.LG math.STcited by 3

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Abstract (arXiv)

Property elicitation studies which attributes of a probability distribution can be determined by minimizing a risk. We investigate a generalization of property elicitation to imprecise probabilities (IP). This investigation is motivated by distributionally robust optimization and multi-distribution learning. Both those frameworks replace the minimization of a single risk over a (precise) probability by a maximin risk minimization over a set of probabilities -- i.e. an IP. We show what can be learned in those multi-distribution setups by providing necessary and sufficient conditions for the elicitability of an IP-property. Central to these conditions is the observation made in related literature that the elicited IP-property is the corresponding classical property of the probability in the IP with the maximum Bayes risk.

Key facts. Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 5 of its 31 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 8 Jul 2025.

Builds on

5 of 31 references.

References · 5

  1. 2019Distributionally Robust Optimization: A Reviewcited by 76
  2. 2022On-Demand Sampling: Learning Optimally from Multiple Distributionscited by 39
  3. 2024Scoring Rules and Calibration for Imprecise Probabilitiescited by 10
  4. 2019Forecast Evaluation of Quantiles, Prediction Intervals, and other Set-Valued Functionalscited by 7
  5. 2025Truthful Elicitation of Imprecise Forecastscited by 6

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2026: 3.

3 papers.