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Optimizing Shortfall Risk Metric for Learning Regression Models

arXiv 2505.17777 ↗First posted 23 May 2025cs.LGcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

We consider the problem of estimating and optimizing utility-based shortfall risk (UBSR) of a loss, say (Y - hat Y)2, in the context of a regression problem. Empirical risk minimization with a UBSR objective is challenging since UBSR is a non-linear function of the underlying distribution. We first derive a concentration bound for UBSR estimation using independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples. We then frame the UBSR optimization problem as minimization of a pseudo-linear function in the space of achievable distributions mathcal D of the loss (Y- hat Y)2. We construct a gradient oracle for the UBSR objective and a linear minimization oracle (LMO) for the set mathcal D. Using these oracles, we devise a bisection-type algorithm, and establish convergence to the UBSR-optimal solution.

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References · 8

  1. 2017Learning with Average Top-k Losscited by 52
  2. 2020Learning Bounds for Risk-sensitive Learningcited by 33
  3. 2019A Wasserstein distance approach for concentration of empirical risk estimatescited by 18
  4. 2022Consistent Multiclass Algorithms for Complex Metrics and Constraintscited by 13
  5. 2022Risk Measures and Upper Probabilities: Coherence and Stratificationcited by 9
  6. 2021Spectral risk-based learning using unbounded lossescited by 8
  7. 2022Stochastic Optimization for Spectral Risk Measurescited by 7
  8. 2021Online Estimation and Optimization of Utility-Based Shortfall Riskcited by 5

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