EEG-to-fMRI synthesis of task-evoked and spontaneous brain activity: addressing issues of statistical significance and generalizability

A growing interest has developed in the problem of training models of EEG features to predict brain activity measured using fMRI, i.e. the problem of EEG-to-fMRI synthesis. Despite some reported success, the statistical significance and generalizability of EEG-to-fMRI predictions remains to be fully demonstrated. Here, we investigate the predictive power of EEG for both task-evoked and spontaneous activity of the somatomotor network measured by fMRI, based on data collected from healthy subjects in two different sessions. We trained subject-specific distributed-lag linear models of time-varying, multi-channel EEG spectral power using Sparse Group LASSO regularization, and we showed that learned models outperformed conventional EEG somatomotor rhythm predictors as well as massive univariate correlation models. Furthermore, we showed that learned models were statistically significantly better than appropriate null models in most subjects and conditions, although less frequently for spontaneous compared to task-evoked activity. Critically, predictions improved significantly when training and testing on data acquired in the same session relative to across sessions, highlighting the importance of temporally separating the collection of train and test data to avoid data leakage and optimistic bias in model generalization. In sum, while we demonstrate that EEG models can provide fMRI predictions with statistical significance, we also show that predictive power is impaired for spontaneous fluctuations in brain activity and for models trained on data acquired in a different session. Our findings highlight the need to explicitly consider these often overlooked issues in the growing literature of EEG-to-fMRI synthesis.