Interpretable Cross-Sphere Multiscale Deep Learning Predicts ENSO Skilfully Beyond 2 Years
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Abstract (arXiv)
El Ni~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts global climate and societal impacts, but real-time prediction with lead times beyond one year remains challenging. Dynamical models suffer from large biases and uncertainties, while deep learning struggles with interpretability and multi-scale dynamics. Here, we introduce PTSTnet, an interpretable model that unifies dynamical processes and cross-scale spatiotemporal learning in an innovative neural-network framework with physics-encoding learning. PTSTnet produces interpretable predictions significantly outperforming state-of-the-art benchmarks with lead times beyond 24 months, providing physical insights into error propagation in ocean-atmosphere interactions. PTSTnet learns feature representations with physical consistency from sparse data to tackle inherent multi-scale and multi-physics challenges underlying ocean-atmosphere processes, thereby inherently enhancing long-term prediction skill. Our successful realizations mark substantial steps forward in interpretable insights into innovative neural ocean modelling.
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References · 4
- 2019Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI): Concepts, Taxonomies, Opportunities and Challenges toward Responsible AIcited by 1,552
- 2014How transferable are features in deep neural networks?cited by 1,225
- 2020Disentangling Physical Dynamics from Unknown Factors for Unsupervised Video Predictioncited by 195
- 2023Explainable GeoAI: Can saliency maps help interpret artificial intelligence's learning process? An empirical study on natural feature detectioncited by 14
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