mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Volume-Sorted Prediction Set: Efficient Conformal Prediction for Multi-Target Regression

arXiv 2503.02205 ↗First posted 4 Mar 2025cs.LG stat.MLcited by 6

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Abstract (arXiv)

We introduce Volume-Sorted Prediction Set (VSPS), a novel method for uncertainty quantification in multi-target regression that uses conditional normalizing flows with conformal calibration. This approach constructs flexible, non-convex predictive regions with guaranteed coverage probabilities, overcoming limitations of traditional methods. By learning a transformation where the conditional distribution of responses follows a known form, VSPS identifies dense regions in the original space using the Jacobian determinant. This enables the creation of prediction regions that adapt to the true underlying distribution, focusing on areas of high probability density. Experimental results demonstrate that VSPS produces smaller, more informative prediction regions while maintaining robust coverage guarantees, enhancing uncertainty modeling in complex, high-dimensional settings.

Key facts. Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 35 of its 50 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 4 Mar 2025.

Builds on

35 of 50 references.

References · 35

  1. 2017Masked Autoregressive Flow for Density Estimationcited by 680
  2. 2019Conformalized Quantile Regressioncited by 620
  3. 2020Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coveragecited by 390
  4. 2019Nested conformal prediction and quantile out-of-bag ensemble methodscited by 88
  5. 2021Conformal Prediction using Conditional Histogramscited by 77
  6. 2020CD-split and HPD-split: efficient conformal regions in high dimensionscited by 74
  7. 2019Flexible distribution-free conditional predictive bands using density estimatorscited by 64
  8. 2021Copula-based conformal prediction for Multi-Target Regressioncited by 53
  9. 2023Conformal Prediction for Deep Classifier via Label Rankingcited by 52
  10. 2021Conformal Uncertainty Sets for Robust Optimizationcited by 49
  11. 2021Calibrated Multiple-Output Quantile Regression with Representation Learningcited by 49
  12. 2022Probabilistic Conformal Prediction Using Conditional Random Samplescited by 47
23 more
  1. 2021Selection and Aggregation of Conformal Prediction Setscited by 46
  2. 2024Conformal prediction for multi-dimensional time series by ellipsoidal setscited by 37
  3. 2021Conformal Prediction Bands for Multivariate Functional Datacited by 28
  4. 2023Conformal Contextual Robust Optimizationcited by 25
  5. 2024Probabilistic Conformal Prediction with Approximate Conditional Validitycited by 23
  6. 2022Split Localized Conformal Predictioncited by 20
  7. 2024Trustworthy Classification through Rank-Based Conformal Prediction Setscited by 20
  8. 2025Optimal Transport-based Conformal Predictioncited by 19
  9. 2021Anomalous Edge Detection in Edge Exchangeable Social Network Modelscited by 17
  10. 2023Conformal Prediction for Network-Assisted Regressioncited by 14
  11. 2024Normalizing Flows for Conformal Regressioncited by 11
  12. 2024Conformal Load Prediction with Transductive Graph Autoencoderscited by 11
  13. 2024Weighted Aggregation of Conformity Scores for Classificationcited by 11
  14. 2024Conformal Thresholded Intervals for Efficient Regressioncited by 11
  15. 2024Game-Theoretic Defenses for Robust Conformal Prediction Against Adversarial Attacks in Medical Imagingcited by 10
  16. 2023Conformal link prediction for false discovery rate controlcited by 9
  17. 2024Entropy Reweighted Conformal Classificationcited by 8
  18. 2024Conformalized Interval Arithmetic with Symmetric Calibrationcited by 8
  19. 2024C-Adapter: Adapting Deep Classifiers for Efficient Conformal Prediction Setscited by 7
  20. 2025Parametric Scaling Law of Tuning Bias in Conformal Predictioncited by 7
  21. 2025Enhancing Trustworthiness of Graph Neural Networks with Rank-Based Conformal Trainingcited by 6
  22. 2024Flexible Conformal Highest Predictive Conditional Density Setscited by 5
  23. 2020Deep tree-ensembles for multi-output predictioncited by 4

Built on by

Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2025: 5; 2026: 1.

6 papers.

  1. 2025Enhancing Adversarial Robustness with Conformal Prediction: A Framework for Guaranteed Model Reliabilitycited by 6
  2. 2025Enhanced Route Planning with Calibrated Uncertainty Setcited by 5
  3. 2025Conditional Conformal Risk Adaptationcited by 5
  4. 2025Residual Reweighted Conformal Prediction for Graph Neural Networkscited by 2
  5. 2025Zono-Conformal Prediction: Zonotope-Based Uncertainty Quantification for Regression and Classification Taskscited by 2
  6. 2026Multi-Variable Conformal Prediction: Optimizing Prediction Sets without Data Splittingcited by 0