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Identifying Stochastic Dynamics from Non-Sequential Data (DyNoSeD)

arXiv 2502.17690 ↗First posted 24 Feb 2025nlin.CD cs.LGcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Inferring stochastic dynamics from data is central across the sciences, yet in many applications only unordered, non-sequential measurements are available-often restricted to limited regions of state space-so standard time-series methods do not apply. We introduce DyNoSeD, a first-principles framework that identifies unknown dynamical parameters from such non-sequential data by minimizing Fokker-Planck residuals. We develop two complementary routes: a local route that handles region-restricted data via locally estimated scores, and a global route that fits dynamics from globally sampled data using a kernel Stein discrepancy without explicit density or score estimation. When the dynamics are affine in the unknown parameters, we prove a necessary-and-sufficient condition for the existence and uniqueness of the inferred parameters and derive a sensitivity analysis that identifies which parameters are tightly constrained by the data and which remain effectively free under over-parameterization. For general non-affine case, both routes define differentiable losses amenable to gradient-based optimization. As demonstrations, we recover (i) the three parameters of a stochastic Lorenz system from non-sequential data (region-restricted data for the local route and full steady-state data for the global route) and (ii) a 3x7interaction matrix of a nonlinear gene-regulatory network derived from a published B-cell differentiation model, using only unordered steady-state samples and applying the global route. Finally, we show that the same Fokker-Planck residual viewpoint supports a "dynamics-to-density" complement that trains a normalized density estimator directly from known dynamics without any observations. Overall, IDyNSD provides two first-principles routes for system-identification from non-sequential data, grounded in the Fokker-Planck equation, that link data, density, and stochastic dynamics.

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References · 10

  1. 2020Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equationscited by 9,122
  2. 2018Neural Ordinary Differential Equationscited by 3,779
  3. 2016Stein Variational Gradient Descent: A General Purpose Bayesian Inference Algorithmcited by 507
  4. 2019Sliced Score Matching: A Scalable Approach to Density and Score Estimationcited by 384
  5. 2020Universal Differential Equations for Scientific Machine Learningcited by 353
  6. 2020TrajectoryNet: A Dynamic Optimal Transport Network for Modeling Cellular Dynamicscited by 160
  7. 2016A Kernel Test of Goodness of Fitcited by 143
  8. 2019Minimum Stein Discrepancy Estimatorscited by 57
  9. 2024Inferring biological processes with intrinsic noise from cross-sectional datacited by 9
  10. 2023Stochastic force inference via density estimationcited by 5

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