The Lottery LLM Hypothesis, Rethinking What Abilities Should LLM Compression Preserve?
On the map: LLM reasoning → Test-time compute and efficient thinking
Abstract (arXiv)
Motivated by reducing the computational and storage costs of LLMs, model compression and KV cache compression have attracted much attention from researchers. However, current methods predominantly emphasize maintaining the performance of compressed LLMs, as measured by perplexity or simple accuracy on tasks of common sense knowledge QA and basic arithmetic reasoning. In this blog, we present a brief review of recent advancements in LLMs related to retrieval-augmented generation, multi-step reasoning, external tools, and computational expressivity, all of which substantially enhance LLM performance. Then, we propose a lottery LLM hypothesis suggesting that for a given LLM and task, there exists a smaller lottery LLM capable of producing the same performance as the original LLM with the assistance of multi-step reasoning and external tools. Based on the review of current progress in LLMs, we discuss and summarize the essential capabilities that the lottery LLM and KV cache compression must possess, which are currently overlooked in existing methods.
Key facts. Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning. Builds on 14 of its 91 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 24 Feb 2025.
Builds on
14 of 91 references.
References · 14
- 2023LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Modelscited by 14,132
- 2021Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problemscited by 10,109
- 2023Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Large Language Models: A Surveycited by 2,212
- 2023Encouraging Divergent Thinking in Large Language Models through Multi-Agent Debatecited by 1,011
- 2024Large Language Monkeys: Scaling Inference Compute with Repeated Samplingcited by 991
- 2024Hallucination is Inevitable: An Innate Limitation of Large Language Modelscited by 332
- 2022FOLIO: Natural Language Reasoning with First-Order Logiccited by 235
- 2024LegalBench-RAG: A Benchmark for Retrieval-Augmented Generation in the Legal Domaincited by 118
- 2024LLMs Will Always Hallucinate, and We Need to Live With Thiscited by 78
- 2023Are Large Language Models Really Good Logical Reasoners? A Comprehensive Evaluation and Beyondcited by 65
- 2024Fine Tuning vs. Retrieval Augmented Generation for Less Popular Knowledgecited by 50
- 2023GPT-4 Can't Reasoncited by 40
2 more
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2025: 5; 2026: 1.
6 papers.
- 2025GitTaskBench: A Benchmark for Code Agents Solving Real-World Tasks Through Code Repository Leveragingcited by 25
- 2025FlowKV: Enhancing Multi-Turn Conversational Coherence in LLMs via Isolated Key-Value Cache Managementcited by 6
- 2025AnTKV: Anchor Token-Aware Sub-Bit Vector Quantization for KV Cache in Large Language Modelscited by 3
- 2025Model Hemorrhage and the Robustness Limits of Large Language Modelscited by 1
- 2025Advantageous Parameter Expansion Training Makes Better Large Language Modelscited by 0
- 2026Rose-SQL: Role-State Evolution Guided Structured Reasoning for Multi-Turn Text-to-SQLcited by 0
- 2026Rose-SQL: Role-State Evolution Guided Structured Reasoning for Multi-Turn Text-to-SQL5 May 2026
- 2025GitTaskBench: A Benchmark for Code Agents Solving Real-World Tasks Through Code Repository Leveraging26 Aug 2025
- 2025AnTKV: Anchor Token-Aware Sub-Bit Vector Quantization for KV Cache in Large Language Models24 Jun 2025
- 2025Advantageous Parameter Expansion Training Makes Better Large Language Models30 May 2025
- 2025FlowKV: Enhancing Multi-Turn Conversational Coherence in LLMs via Isolated Key-Value Cache Management21 May 2025
- 2025Model Hemorrhage and the Robustness Limits of Large Language Models31 Mar 2025
Similar, not cited
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- 2024Faster and Lighter LLMs: A Survey on Current Challenges and Way Forward
- 2026Zipage: Maintain High Request Concurrency for LLM Reasoning through Compressed PagedAttention
- 2026Capability Scaling-Down Laws for LLM Compression
- 2025Understanding and Mitigating Numerical Sources of Nondeterminism in LLM Inference
- 2023Compressing LLMs: The Truth is Rarely Pure and Never Simple
- 2026Prompt Compression in the Wild: Measuring Latency, Rate Adherence, and Quality for Faster LLM Inference
- 2026Taming Speculative Search for Test-Time Scaling in LLM Serving
- 2024LLM Inference Unveiled: Survey and Roofline Model Insights