Intention-based and Risk-Aware Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving in Complex Traffic Scenarios

Accurately predicting the trajectory of surrounding vehicles is a critical challenge for autonomous vehicles. In complex traffic scenarios, there are two significant issues with the current autonomous driving system: the cognitive uncertainty of prediction and the lack of risk awareness, which limit the further development of autonomous driving. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel trajectory prediction model that incorporates insights and principles from driving behavior, ethical decision-making, and risk assessment. Based on joint prediction, our model consists of interaction, intention, and risk assessment modules. The dynamic variation of interaction between vehicles can be comprehensively captured at each timestamp in the interaction module. Based on interaction information, our model considers primary intentions for vehicles to enhance the diversity of trajectory generation. The optimization of predicted trajectories follows the advanced risk-aware decision-making principles. Experimental results are evaluated on the DeepAccident dataset; our approach shows its remarkable prediction performance on normal and accident scenarios and outperforms the state-of-the-art algorithms by at least 28.9% and 26.5%, respectively. The proposed model improves the proficiency and adaptability of trajectory prediction in complex traffic scenarios. The code for the proposed model is available at https://sites.google.com/view/ir-prediction.