Evaluation of Prosumer Networks for Peak Load Management in Iran: A Distributed Contextual Stochastic Optimization Approach

Renewable prosumers face the complex challenge of balancing self-sufficiency with seamless grid and market integration. This paper introduces a novel prosumers network framework aimed at mitigating peak loads in Iran, particularly under the uncertainties inherent in renewable energy generation and demand. A cost-oriented integrated prediction and optimization approach is proposed, empowering prosumers to make informed decisions within a distributed contextual stochastic optimization (DCSO) framework. The problem is formulated as a bi-level two-stage multi-time scale optimization to determine optimal operation and interaction strategies under various scenarios, considering flexible resources. To facilitate grid integration, a novel consensus-based contextual information sharing mechanism is proposed. This approach enables coordinated collective behaviors and leverages contextual data more effectively. The overall problem is recast as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) by incorporating optimality conditions and linearizing complementarity constraints. Additionally, a distributed algorithm using the consensus alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is presented for computational tractability and privacy preservation. Numerical results highlights that integrating prediction with optimization and implementing a contextual information-sharing network among prosumers significantly reduces peak loads as well as total costs.