Understanding the Effects of Miscalibrated AI Confidence on User Trust, Reliance, and Decision Efficacy
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Abstract (arXiv)
Providing well-calibrated AI confidence can help promote users' appropriate trust in and reliance on AI, which are essential for AI-assisted decision-making. However, calibrating AI confidence -- providing confidence score that accurately reflects the true likelihood of AI being correct -- is known to be challenging. To understand the effects of AI confidence miscalibration, we conducted our first experiment. The results indicate that miscalibrated AI confidence impairs users' appropriate reliance and reduces AI-assisted decision-making efficacy, and AI miscalibration is difficult for users to detect. Then, in our second experiment, we examined whether communicating AI confidence calibration levels could mitigate the above issues. We find that it helps users to detect AI miscalibration. Nevertheless, since such communication decreases users' trust in uncalibrated AI, leading to high under-reliance, it does not improve the decision efficacy. We discuss design implications based on these findings and future directions to address risks and ethical concerns associated with AI miscalibration.
Key facts. Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 19 of its 72 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 12 Feb 2024.
Builds on
19 of 72 references.
References · 19
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7 more
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Citing papers per year: 2025: 1; 2026: 5.
6 papers.
- 2026Learning to Trust: How Humans Mentally Recalibrate AI Confidence Signalscited by 2
- 2025Contemplative Artificial Intelligencecited by 1
- 2026Trust Between AI Agents: Measuring Formation, Breakage, and Recovery, with Implications for Governing Multi-Agent Systemscited by 1
- 2026The Timing Dependencies of Trust: Speed, Accuracy, and cBCI Neuro-Decoupling in Human-AI Teamscited by 0
- 2026Agentic Social Affordance Framework (ASAF): Agent Identity Design as a Collaboration Interface in Multi-Agent Systemscited by 0
- 2026The safety failures we are not instrumenting: a perspective on hidden safety-critical challenges in modern AI systemscited by 0
- 2026The safety failures we are not instrumenting: a perspective on hidden safety-critical challenges in modern AI systems21 Jul 2026
- 2026Trust Between AI Agents: Measuring Formation, Breakage, and Recovery, with Implications for Governing Multi-Agent Systems12 Jun 2026
- 2026The Timing Dependencies of Trust: Speed, Accuracy, and cBCI Neuro-Decoupling in Human-AI Teams25 May 2026
- 2026Agentic Social Affordance Framework (ASAF): Agent Identity Design as a Collaboration Interface in Multi-Agent Systems19 Apr 2026
- 2026Learning to Trust: How Humans Mentally Recalibrate AI Confidence Signals23 Mar 2026
- 2025Contemplative Artificial Intelligence21 Apr 2025