Recurrent Neural Networks with more flexible memory: better predictions than rough volatility
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Abstract (arXiv)
We extend recurrent neural networks to include several flexible timescales for each dimension of their output, which mechanically improves their abilities to account for processes with long memory or with highly disparate time scales. We compare the ability of vanilla and extended long short term memory networks (LSTMs) to predict asset price volatility, known to have a long memory. Generally, the number of epochs needed to train extended LSTMs is divided by two, while the variation of validation and test losses among models with the same hyperparameters is much smaller. We also show that the model with the smallest validation loss systemically outperforms rough volatility predictions by about 20% when trained and tested on a dataset with multiple time series.
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References · 5
- 2014Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translationcited by 4,057
- 2021Physics-based Deep Learningcited by 68
- 2020Do RNN and LSTM have Long Memory?cited by 47
- 2021Recurrent Neural Networks for Learning Long-term Temporal Dependencies with Reanalysis of Time Scale Representationcited by 4
- 2022On the universality of the volatility formation process: when machine learning and rough volatility agreecited by 1
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