Prediction of post-radiotherapy recurrence volumes in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma using 3D U-Net segmentation

Locoregional recurrences (LRR) are still a frequent site of treatment failure for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients. Identification of high risk subvolumes based on pretreatment imaging is key to biologically targeted radiation therapy. We investigated the extent to which a Convolutional neural network (CNN) is able to predict LRR volumes based on pre-treatment 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET)/computed tomography (CT) scans in HNSCC patients and thus the potential to identify biological high risk volumes using CNNs. For 37 patients who had undergone primary radiotherapy for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma, five oncologists contoured the relapse volumes on recurrence CT scans. Datasets of pre-treatment FDG-PET/CT, gross tumour volume (GTV) and contoured relapse for each of the patients were randomly divided into training (n=23), validation (n=7) and test (n=7) datasets. We compared a CNN trained from scratch, a pre-trained CNN, a SUVmax threshold approach, and using the GTV directly. The SUVmax threshold method included 5 out of the 7 relapse origin points within a volume of median 4.6 cubic centimetres (cc). Both the GTV contour and best CNN segmentations included the relapse origin 6 out of 7 times with median volumes of 28 and 18 cc respectively. The CNN included the same or greater number of relapse volume POs, with significantly smaller relapse volumes. Our novel findings indicate that CNNs may predict LRR, yet further work on dataset development is required to attain clinically useful prediction accuracy.