Adaptive Modeling of Satellite-Derived Nighttime Lights Time-Series for Tracking Urban Change Processes Using Machine Learning

Remotely sensed nighttime lights (NTL) uniquely capture urban change processes that are important to human and ecological well-being, such as urbanization, socio-political conflicts and displacement, impacts from disasters, holidays, and changes in daily human patterns of movement. Though several NTL products are global in extent, intrinsic city-specific factors that affect lighting, such as development levels, and social, economic, and cultural characteristics, are unique to each city, making the urban processes embedded in NTL signatures difficult to characterize, and limiting the scalability of urban change analyses. In this study, we propose a data-driven approach to detect urban changes from daily satellite-derived NTL data records that is adaptive across cities and effective at learning city-specific temporal patterns. The proposed method learns to forecast NTL signatures from past data records using neural networks and allows the use of large volumes of unlabeled data, eliminating annotation effort. Urban changes are detected based on deviations of observed NTL from model forecasts using an anomaly detection approach. Comparing model forecasts with observed NTL also allows identifying the direction of change (positive or negative) and monitoring change severity for tracking recovery. In operationalizing the model, we consider ten urban areas from diverse geographic regions with dynamic NTL time-series and demonstrate the generalizability of the approach for detecting the change processes with different drivers and rates occurring within these urban areas based on NTL deviation. This scalable approach for monitoring changes from daily remote sensing observations efficiently utilizes large data volumes to support continuous monitoring and decision making.