mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Calibrated Forecasts: The Minimax Proof

arXiv 2209.05863 ↗First posted 13 Sep 2022econ.TH cs.GT cs.LGcited by 17

Not on the map. Why?

Abstract (arXiv)

A formal write-up of the simple proof (1995) of the existence of calibrated forecasts by the minimax theorem, which moreover shows that N3 periods suffice to guarantee a calibration error of at most 1/N.

Key facts. Cited by 17 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 2 of its 9 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 13 Sep 2022.

Builds on

2 of 9 references.

References · 2

  1. 2020Stronger Calibration Lower Bounds via Sidesteppingcited by 38
  2. 2022"Calibeating": Beating Forecasters at Their Own Gamecited by 14

Built on by

Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2022: 1; 2023: 4; 2024: 5; 2025: 3; 2026: 4.

17 papers.

Sort:

  1. 2023U-Calibration: Forecasting for an Unknown Agentcited by 46
  2. 2023A Unifying Perspective on Multi-Calibration: Game Dynamics for Multi-Objective Learningcited by 30
  3. 2023Calibrated Stackelberg Games: Learning Optimal Commitments Against Calibrated Agentscited by 25
  4. 2022Forecast Hedging and Calibrationcited by 22
  5. 2023Classifier Calibration with ROC-Regularized Isotonic Regressioncited by 19
  6. 2024On the Distance from Calibration in Sequential Predictioncited by 19
  7. 2024Calibration Error for Decision Makingcited by 13
  8. 2024Optimal Multiclass U-Calibration Error and Beyondcited by 13
  9. 2025High dimensional online calibration in polynomial timecited by 13
  10. 2025High-Dimensional Calibration from Swap Regretcited by 13
  11. 2024Truthfulness of Calibration Measurescited by 7
  12. 2024Learning With Multi-Group Guarantees For Clusterable Subpopulationscited by 3
5 more
  1. 2026Computational and Statistical Hardness of Calibration Distancecited by 1
  2. 2026Instance-Adaptive Online Multicalibrationcited by 1
  3. 2026Proper Calibeatingcited by 1
  4. 2026Efficient Sequential Calibration with O(T2/3-ε) Error Boundcited by 1
  5. 2025Improved and Oracle-Efficient Online ℓ1-Multicalibrationcited by 0