Modeling and Predicting Transistor Aging under Workload Dependency using Machine Learning

The pivotal issue of reliability is one of colossal concern for circuit designers. The driving force is transistor aging, dependent on operating voltage and workload. At the design time, it is difficult to estimate close-to-the-edge guardbands that keep aging effects during the lifetime at bay. This is because the foundry does not share its calibrated physics-based models, comprised of highly confidential technology and material parameters. However, the unmonitored yet necessary overestimation of degradation amounts to a performance decline, which could be preventable. Furthermore, these physics-based models are exceptionally computationally complex. The costs of modeling millions of individual transistors at design time can be evidently exorbitant. We propose the revolutionizing prospect of a machine learning model trained to replicate the physics-based model, such that no confidential parameters are disclosed. This effectual workaround is fully accessible to circuit designers for the purposes of design optimization. We demonstrate the models' ability to generalize by training on data from one circuit and applying it successfully to a benchmark circuit. The mean relative error is as low as 1.7%, with a speedup of up to 20X. Circuit designers, for the first time ever, will have ease of access to a high-precision aging model, which is paramount for efficient designs. This work is a promising step in the direction of bridging the wide gulf between the foundry and circuit designers.