From prediction markets to interpretable collective intelligence
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
We outline how to create a mechanism that provides an optimal way to elicit, from an arbitrary group of experts, the probability of the truth of an arbitrary logical proposition together with collective information that has an explicit form and interprets this probability. Namely, we provide strong arguments for the possibility of the development of a self-resolving prediction market with play money that incentivizes direct information exchange between experts. Such a system could, in particular, motivate simultaneously many experts to collectively solve scientific or medical problems in a very efficient manner. We also note that in our considerations, experts are not assumed to be Bayesian.
Key facts. Cited by 1 paper in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 0 of its 68 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 28 Apr 2022.
Builds on
0 of 68 references.
No references here yet.
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2026: 1.
1 paper.