Small data problems in political research: a critical replication study

In an often-cited 2019 paper on the use of machine learning in political research, Anastasopoulos & Whitford (A&W) propose a text classification method for tweets related to organizational reputation. The aim of their paper was to provide a 'guide to practice' for public administration scholars and practitioners on the use of machine learning. In the current paper we follow up on that work with a replication of A&W's experiments and additional analyses on model stability and the effects of preprocessing, both in relation to the small data size. We show that (1) the small data causes the classification model to be highly sensitive to variations in the random train-test split, and that (2) the applied preprocessing causes the data to be extremely sparse, with the majority of items in the data having at most two non-zero lexical features. With additional experiments in which we vary the steps of the preprocessing pipeline, we show that the small data size keeps causing problems, irrespective of the preprocessing choices. Based on our findings, we argue that A&W's conclusions regarding the automated classification of organizational reputation tweets -- either substantive or methodological -- can not be maintained and require a larger data set for training and more careful validation.