Comparison of Machine Learning Classifiers to Predict Patient Survival and Genetics of GBM: Towards a Standardized Model for Clinical Implementation

Radiomic models have been shown to outperform clinical data for outcome prediction in glioblastoma (GBM). However, clinical implementation is limited by lack of parameters standardization. We aimed to compare nine machine learning classifiers, with different optimization parameters, to predict overall survival (OS), isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) mutation, O-6-methylguanine-DNA-methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) VII amplification and Ki-67 expression in GBM patients, based on radiomic features from conventional and advanced MR. 156 adult patients with pathologic diagnosis of GBM were included. Three tumoral regions were analyzed: contrast-enhancing tumor, necrosis and non-enhancing tumor, selected by manual segmentation. Radiomic features were extracted with a custom version of Pyradiomics, and selected through Boruta algorithm. A Grid Search algorithm was applied when computing 4 times K-fold cross validation (K=10) to get the highest mean and lowest spread of accuracy. Once optimal parameters were identified, model performances were assessed in terms of Area Under The Curve-Receiver Operating Characteristics (AUC-ROC). Metaheuristic and ensemble classifiers showed the best performance across tasks. xGB obtained maximum accuracy for OS (74.5%), AB for IDH mutation (88%), MGMT methylation (71,7%), Ki-67 expression (86,6%), and EGFR amplification (81,6%). Best performing features shed light on possible correlations between MR and tumor histology.