To Bag is to Prune
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
It is notoriously difficult to build a bad Random Forest (RF). Concurrently, RF blatantly overfits in-sample without any apparent consequence out-of-sample. Standard arguments, like the classic bias-variance trade-off or double descent, cannot rationalize this paradox. I propose a new explanation: bootstrap aggregation and model perturbation as implemented by RF automatically prune a latent "true" tree. More generally, randomized ensembles of greedily optimized learners implicitly perform optimal early stopping out-of-sample. So there is no need to tune the stopping point. By construction, novel variants of Boosting and MARS are also eligible for automatic tuning. I empirically demonstrate the property, with simulated and real data, by reporting that these new completely overfitting ensembles perform similarly to their tuned counterparts -- or better.
Key facts. Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 17 Aug 2020.
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Citing papers per year: 2021: 1; 2022: 1; 2023: 1; 2024: 0; 2025: 1; 2026: 1.
5 papers.
- 2023Maximally Machine-Learnable Portfolioscited by 3
- 2022SETAR-Tree: A Novel and Accurate Tree Algorithm for Global Time Series Forecastingcited by 2
- 2021Slow-Growing Treescited by 0
- 2025Ordinary Least Squares as an Attention Mechanismcited by 0
- 2026Quantifying the Risk-Return Tradeoff in Forecastingcited by 0
- 2026Quantifying the Risk-Return Tradeoff in Forecasting10 May 2026
- 2025Ordinary Least Squares as an Attention Mechanism13 Apr 2025
- 2023Maximally Machine-Learnable Portfolios8 Jun 2023
- 2022SETAR-Tree: A Novel and Accurate Tree Algorithm for Global Time Series Forecasting16 Nov 2022
- 2021Slow-Growing Trees2 Mar 2021