Bayesian model predictive control: Efficient model exploration and regret bounds using posterior sampling

Tight performance specifications in combination with operational constraints make model predictive control (MPC) the method of choice in various industries. As the performance of an MPC controller depends on a sufficiently accurate objective and prediction model of the process, a significant effort in the MPC design procedure is dedicated to modeling and identification. Driven by the increasing amount of available system data and advances in the field of machine learning, data-driven MPC techniques have been developed to facilitate the MPC controller design. While these methods are able to leverage available data, they typically do not provide principled mechanisms to automatically trade off exploitation of available data and exploration to improve and update the objective and prediction model. To this end, we present a learning-based MPC formulation using posterior sampling techniques, which provides finite-time regret bounds on the learning performance while being simple to implement using off-the-shelf MPC software and algorithms. The performance analysis of the method is based on posterior sampling theory and its practical efficiency is illustrated using a numerical example of a highly nonlinear dynamical car-trailer system.