# Divergent Paths: Learning an Outcome-Predictive Representation of LLM Agent Trajectories

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.19614 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.19614/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reinforcement learning for LLM agents, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 24 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 Oct 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [Reinforcement learning for LLM agents](https://mlsanity.com/agents/reinforcement-learning-for-llm-agents/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [Prototypical Networks for Few-shot Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.05175/) (2017)
- [DAPO: An Open-Source LLM Reinforcement Learning System at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14476/) (2025)
- [High-Dimensional Continuous Control Using Generalized Advantage Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02438/) (2015)
- [Math-Shepherd: Verify and Reinforce LLMs Step-by-step without Human Annotations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.08935/) (2023)
- [Solving math word problems with process- and outcome-based feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14275/) (2022)
- [τ2-Bench: Evaluating Conversational Agents in a Dual-Control Environment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.07982/) (2025)
- [Terminal-Bench: Benchmarking Agents on Hard, Realistic Tasks in Command Line Interfaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.11868/) (2026)
- [Group-in-Group Policy Optimization for LLM Agent Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.10978/) (2025)
- [Agent-as-a-Judge: Evaluate Agents with Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10934/) (2024)
- [AgentClinic: a multimodal agent benchmark to evaluate AI in simulated clinical environments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.07960/) (2024)
- [Free Process Rewards without Process Labels](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.01981/) (2024)
- [Act Only When It Pays: Efficient Reinforcement Learning for LLM Reasoning via Selective Rollouts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.02177/) (2025)
- [Time Limits in Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.00378/) (2017)
- [Hierarchy-of-Groups Policy Optimization for Long-Horizon Agentic Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.22817/) (2026)
- [UltraHorizon: Benchmarking Agent Capabilities in Ultra Long-Horizon Scenarios](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.21766/) (2025)
- [LLM Reasoning as Trajectories: Step-Specific Representation Geometry and Correctness Signals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.05655/) (2026)
- [TRACER: Trajectory Risk Aggregation for Critical Episodes in Agentic Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.11409/) (2026)
- [Generate, Filter, Control, Replay: A Comprehensive Survey of Rollout Strategies for LLM Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.02913/) (2026)
- [ToolPRM: Fine-Grained Inference Scaling of Structured Outputs for Function Calling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.14703/) (2025)
- [Selective Rollout: Mid-Trajectory Termination for Multi-Sample Agent RL](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.05802/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In this work, we reframe agentic trajectories as paths through a shared embedding space of actions and environmental observations. We show that successful and failed rollouts of the same task separate in this space, with simple per-task discriminators predicting held-out rollout outcomes at up to 0.95 AUROC across three agent benchmarks and three policy models. To exploit this signal across tasks, we introduce Precog-RM, a transformer-based model that meta-learns a representation in which outcome prediction can be performed in a few-shot setting. We show that Precog-RM generalizes to unseen tasks and models, and gives confident predictions of trajectory success long before termination. Deployed as an early stopping controller for Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) on Tau2-Bench, Precog-RM cuts training FLOPs by up to 47.3% while maintaining performance comparable to baseline GRPO.