# Lotus: Learning to Understand Time-series by Learning to Forecast

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18877 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.18877/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 20 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Oct 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01728/) (2023)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02592/) (2024)
- [Large Language Models Are Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07820/) (2023)
- [Monash Time Series Forecasting Archive](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.06643/) (2021)
- [TEST: Text Prototype Aligned Embedding to Activate LLM's Ability for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.08241/) (2023)
- [SimMTM: A Simple Pre-Training Framework for Masked Time-Series Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.00861/) (2023)
- [ChatTS: Aligning Time Series with LLMs via Synthetic Data for Enhanced Understanding and Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.03104/) (2024)
- [Language Models Still Struggle to Zero-shot Reason about Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.11757/) (2024)
- [Time-MQA: Time Series Multi-Task Question Answering with Context Enhancement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01875/) (2025)
- [ECG-QA: A Comprehensive Question Answering Dataset Combined With Electrocardiogram](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.15681/) (2023)
- [GEM: Empowering MLLM for Grounded ECG Understanding with Time Series and Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.06073/) (2025)
- [SensorLLM: Aligning Large Language Models with Motion Sensors for Human Activity Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10624/) (2024)
- [OpenTSLM: Time-Series Language Models for Reasoning over Multivariate Medical Text- and Time-Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.02410/) (2025)
- [TimePFN: Effective Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Synthetic Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.16294/) (2025)
- [TSRBench: A Comprehensive Multi-task Multi-modal Time Series Reasoning Benchmark for Generalist Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.18744/) (2026)
- [TS-Reasoner: Aligning Time Series Foundation Models with LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.03519/) (2025)
- [Synthetic Series-Symbol Data Generation for Time Series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.08445/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Time-series language models typically align numerical signals with language using labels, captions, or question-answer pairs. Although such supervision encourages linguistic representations, it does not explicitly require them to preserve information about how the underlying time-series signal evolves. We introduce forecast grounding, a pretraining principle that requires language-aligned time-series representations to remain predictive of the future evolution before they are adapted to downstream tasks. We instantiate this principle in LOTUS, which divides each time-series channel into non-overlapping patches and maps them into the LLM embedding space. It then predicts the next patch from the LLM hidden states of the time-series tokens, encouraging the learned representation to retain temporal information. To capture both temporal changes and periodic patterns, we also propose a temporal-spectral patch representation that combines each raw time-series patch with its spectral representation before mapping it into the LLM embedding space. Across three language model backbones and six downstream evaluation datasets, LOTUS achieves the best average performance with minimal trainable parameters, reaching 59.91% accuracy and outperforming the strongest matched baseline by 3.36%. Our representation analyses further show that LOTUS uses the numerical input and preserves temporal structure in its learned patch representations. These results establish forecast grounding as a promising pretraining principle, enabling compact time-series language models to outperform models 25 to 50 times their size on TSRBench.