# Beyond Belief Nesting: Rethinking Higher-Order Theory of Mind in Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17777 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.17777/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reasoning benchmarks and evaluation, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 13 of its 28 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 13 Oct 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reasoning benchmarks and evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reasoning-benchmarks-and-evaluation/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Locating and Editing Factual Associations in GPT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.05262/) (2022)
- [DeepSeek-V4: Towards Highly Efficient Million-Token Context Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.19348/) (2026)
- [Dissecting Recall of Factual Associations in Auto-Regressive Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.14767/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models Are Not Robust Multiple Choice Selectors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.03882/) (2023)
- [Evaluating Large Language Models in Theory of Mind Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.02083/) (2023)
- [FANToM: A Benchmark for Stress-testing Machine Theory of Mind in Interactions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.15421/) (2023)
- [Think Twice: Perspective-Taking Improves Large Language Models' Theory-of-Mind Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.10227/) (2023)
- [Artifacts or Abduction: How Do LLMs Answer Multiple-Choice Questions Without the Question?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12483/) (2024)
- [LLMs achieve adult human performance on higher-order theory of mind tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.18870/) (2024)
- [Language Models use Lookbacks to Track Beliefs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.14685/) (2025)
- [Explore Theory of Mind: Program-guided adversarial data generation for theory of mind reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.12175/) (2024)
- [TimeToM: Temporal Space is the Key to Unlocking the Door of Large Language Models' Theory-of-Mind](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.01455/) (2024)
- [Mind the Perspective: Let's Reason Recursively for Theory of Mind](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.11724/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Theory of mind (ToM), the ability to reason about others' mental states, underlies effective communication and coordination. Its higher-order form enables reasoning over nested perspectives in strategic interactions. However, existing evaluations often equate belief-nesting depth with reasoning order, allowing nominally higher-order questions to admit lower-order shortcuts. We formalize effective order through the distinct events supporting successive belief prefixes, revealing widespread order inflation across existing benchmarks. We introduce HopToM, with certified full-order questions and controls for lower-order alternatives. Under direct prompting, mean accuracy across four frontier LLMs falls from 73.5% at first order to 20.0% at fourth order, and human participants also struggle. Causal interventions link a recurring class of errors to evidence for shallower belief prefixes. We introduce HopTrace, a plug-and-play inference-time method that encodes each interaction once into perspective records and resolves nested queries deterministically. On certified narrative questions, it improves fourth- and fifth-order accuracy by 22.0 and 38.5 percentage points over strong prompting baselines, while using 20-39 times fewer tokens than multi-call methods. These results sharpen how higher-order ToM is evaluated and offer a practical way to improve perspective reasoning in interactive agents.