# Multi-Agent Deferred-Decision Trajectory Optimization with Anytime-Valid Target Retention for Moving Candidates

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17003 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.17003/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 Oct 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Conformalized Quantile Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.03222/) (2019)
- [Safe Planning in Dynamic Environments using Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.10254/) (2022)
- [Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Motion Planning among Dynamic Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.00278/) (2022)
- [Multi-Agent Reachability Calibration with Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.00432/) (2023)
- [Conformal Predictive Safety Filter for RL Controllers in Dynamic Environments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.02551/) (2023)
- [Contingency Games for Multi-Agent Interaction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.05483/) (2023)
- [Safe POMDP Online Planning among Dynamic Agents via Adaptive Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.15557/) (2024)
- [Scenario-Based Trajectory Optimization in Uncertain Dynamic Environments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.12517/) (2021)
- [Contingency Model Predictive Control for Automated Vehicles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.08818/) (2019)
- [Deferred-Decision Trajectory Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.06623/) (2025)
- [Delayed-Decision Motion Planning in the Presence of Multiple Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.20636/) (2025)
- [Lasso Universality Under Linearly Dependent Covariates in the Sparse Regime](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.08390/) (2026)
- [DMVC-Tracker: Distributed Multi-Agent Trajectory Planning for Target Tracking Using Dynamic Buffered Voronoi and Inter-Visibility Cells](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.18086/) (2024)
- [A Novel Adaptive Formation Control Strategy for Teams of Unmanned Vehicles Under Complete Dynamic Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.13688/) (2025)
- [Hierarchical Planning for Long-Horizon Multi-Target Tracking Under Target Motion Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.10421/) (2025)
- [Multi-Agent Next-Best-View Optimization for Risk-Averse Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.04158/) (2026)
- [Active Sensing and Deferred-Decision Trajectory Optimization for Robust Target Identification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.22277/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We study multi-agent terminal interception when one of several moving candidates is the unknown target and both target identity and candidate terminal locations are uncertain. We develop a receding-horizon deferred-decision trajectory optimization (DDTO) controller that combines conformal terminal-location prediction, sequential candidate rejection, capacity-constrained assignment, and candidate-contingent planning. Under exchangeability conditions for terminal and identity residuals, with predictable querying, we establish fixed-time terminal-location coverage and anytime-valid target retention. At the final replan, when one control step remains, we bound the joint probability that a tightened-set DDTO plan passes nonlinear rollout verification but capture fails. The closed-loop controller applies fallback guidance to any agent without a verified DDTO plan and, across 100 paired scenarios, captures 79% of targets under the strict control-effort budget and 85% when that budget is relaxed.