# IND-Eval: Aligning Evaluation and Simulation for Industrial Time Series Foundation Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.16652 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.16652/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 21 of its 37 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 Oct 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embedding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09864/) (2021)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07015/) (2017)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [Monash Time Series Forecasting Archive](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.06643/) (2021)
- [GIFT-Eval: A Benchmark For General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10393/) (2024)
- [TiRex: Zero-Shot Forecasting Across Long and Short Horizons with Enhanced In-Context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23719/) (2025)
- [NorMuon: Making Muon more efficient and scalable](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.05491/) (2025)
- [This Time is Different: An Observability Perspective on Time Series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.14766/) (2025)
- [fev-bench: A Realistic Benchmark for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.26468/) (2025)
- [It's TIME: Towards the Next Generation of Time Series Forecasting Benchmarks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.12147/) (2026)
- [Multi-Scale Finetuning for Encoder-based Time Series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.14087/) (2025)
- [Zero-shot Forecasting by Simulation Alone](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.00970/) (2026)
- [Seeking SOTA: Time-Series Forecasting Must Adopt Taxonomy-Specific Evaluation to Dispel Illusory Gains](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.15506/) (2026)
- [FactoryNet: A Large-Scale Dataset toward Industrial Time-Series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.09081/) (2026)
- [3W Dataset 2.0.0: a realistic and public dataset with rare undesirable real events in oil wells](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.01048/) (2025)
- [Mix, Don't Pick: Why Synthetic Corpus Composition Matters for Time Series Foundation Model Pretraining](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.09912/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We introduce IND-Eval, a public benchmark that organizes industrial time series across domains into source-specific forecasting tasks. Relative to established benchmarks such as GIFT-Eval, it emphasizes finer sampling resolutions and a greater prevalence of multivariate forecasting. Evaluating Chronos-2, TiRex-2, and TimesFM-3, we find that TimesFM-3 achieves the lowest source-balanced aggregate nMASE and nCRPS and leads seven of nine sources under each metric; source-specific exceptions reinforce the need for domain-representative evaluation for model selection. These findings also motivate improving domain alignment during pretraining, where real industrial data are often too scarce to close domain-specific gaps directly; we therefore investigate whether a domain's statistical structure can guide simulator design. In a case study on two offshore well-monitoring regimes, we improve a general simulator's coverage using an oscillator-augmented simulation pipeline. This lowers forecasting error in the target domain but reduces performance on the subset of GIFT-Eval with natively univariate targets. A 50/50 mixture of the general and augmented simulation recipes achieves the lowest error among the three training recipes for all four event-metric pairs in the case study while recovering most of the lost GIFT-Eval performance. Together, these results illustrate how domain-representative evaluation can guide model selection and the composition of simulated data while revealing a trade-off between specialization and generality.