# SurgCast: Action-Conditioned Future Skeletons for Controllable Surgical World Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.15645 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.15645/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Medical and surgical world models, one of 11 directions in World models.
- Builds on 32 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 11 Oct 2026.

## Placed in

- World models / [Medical and surgical world models](https://mlsanity.com/wm/medical-and-surgical-world-models/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 32)

- [Adding Conditional Control to Text-to-Image Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.05543/) (2023)
- [T2I-Adapter: Learning Adapters to Dig out More Controllable Ability for Text-to-Image Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.08453/) (2023)
- [One-step Diffusion with Distribution Matching Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.18828/) (2023)
- [Improved Distribution Matching Distillation for Fast Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14867/) (2024)
- [Diffusion Forcing: Next-token Prediction Meets Full-Sequence Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.01392/) (2024)
- [Self Forcing: Bridging the Train-Test Gap in Autoregressive Video Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.08009/) (2025)
- [MotionCtrl: A Unified and Flexible Motion Controller for Video Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03641/) (2023)
- [Learning Universal Policies via Text-Guided Video Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.00111/) (2023)
- [VideoComposer: Compositional Video Synthesis with Motion Controllability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.02018/) (2023)
- [Learning Interactive Real-World Simulators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06114/) (2023)
- [From Slow Bidirectional to Fast Autoregressive Video Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.07772/) (2024)
- [DINO-WM: World Models on Pre-trained Visual Features enable Zero-shot Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.04983/) (2024)
- [Deep Visual Foresight for Planning Robot Motion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.00696/) (2016)
- [DragNUWA: Fine-grained Control in Video Generation by Integrating Text, Image, and Trajectory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.08089/) (2023)
- [Rolling Forcing: Autoregressive Long Video Diffusion in Real Time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25161/) (2025)
- [Causal Forcing: Autoregressive Diffusion Distillation Done Right for High-Quality Real-Time Interactive Video Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.02214/) (2026)
- [Ctrl-World: A Controllable Generative World Model for Robot Manipulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.10125/) (2025)
- [iVideoGPT: Interactive VideoGPTs are Scalable World Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.15223/) (2024)
- [IRASim: A Fine-Grained World Model for Robot Manipulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.14540/) (2024)
- [Learning Real-World Action-Video Dynamics with Heterogeneous Masked Autoregression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.04296/) (2025)
- [SurgPose: a Dataset for Articulated Robotic Surgical Tool Pose Estimation and Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.11534/) (2025)
- [SurgSora: Object-Aware Diffusion Model for Controllable Surgical Video Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.14018/) (2024)
- [daVinciNet: Joint Prediction of Motion and Surgical State in Robot-Assisted Surgery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.11937/) (2020)
- [Recognition and Prediction of Surgical Gestures and Trajectories Using Transformer Models in Robot-Assisted Surgery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.01683/) (2022)
- [VISAGE: Video Synthesis using Action Graphs for Surgery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.17751/) (2024)
- [Surgical Vision World Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.02904/) (2025)
- [SAW: Toward a Surgical Action World Model via Controllable and Scalable Video Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.13024/) (2026)
- [Open-H-Embodiment: A Large-Scale Dataset for Enabling Foundation Models in Medical Robotics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.21017/) (2026)
- [Video-based Surgical Tool-tip and Keypoint Tracking using Multi-frame Context-driven Deep Learning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.18361/) (2025)
- [From Articulated Kinematics to Routed Visual Control for Action-Conditioned Surgical Video Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.08712/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Surgical world models must turn prospective robot actions into visually faithful, structurally consistent instrument motion. We introduce SurgCast, which predicts future instrument skeletons from current structure, robot state, and future actions, then uses the forecast to control video generation. Dual-path injection combines skeleton geometry with derived, instrument-specific motion descriptors through geometric residuals and conditioning modulation. Both paths complement native action conditioning and are retained in a four-step causal student. On SutureBot and SRTH-Porcine-Cholei, the teacher and student improve all seven reported quality and instrument-consistency metrics over their respective direct-action baselines; teacher FVD decreases by 37.6% and 67.3%. Ablations show that future actions improve skeleton prediction and that combining both injection paths performs best across all six metrics under predicted skeletons. These results support using predicted articulated structure and its motion semantics as a control interface for surgical video prediction. Project videos and examples are available at https://surgcast.netlify.app/.