# Screening Collapse under Recursive Synthetic Data

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.15617 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.15617/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 37 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 11 Oct 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Reconciling modern machine learning practice and the bias-variance trade-off](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.11118/) (2018)
- [Benign Overfitting in Linear Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.11300/) (2019)
- [Surprises in High-Dimensional Ridgeless Least Squares Interpolation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.08560/) (2019)
- [Self-Consuming Generative Models Go MAD](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01850/) (2023)
- [Is Model Collapse Inevitable? Breaking the Curse of Recursion by Accumulating Real and Synthetic Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.01413/) (2024)
- [A Tale of Tails: Model Collapse as a Change of Scaling Laws](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.07043/) (2024)
- [On the Stability of Iterative Retraining of Generative Models on their own Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.00429/) (2023)
- [Model Collapse Demystified: The Case of Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.07712/) (2024)
- [How Bad is Training on Synthetic Data? A Statistical Analysis of Language Model Collapse](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.05090/) (2024)
- [Data Feedback Loops: Model-driven Amplification of Dataset Biases](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.03942/) (2022)
- [Collapse or Thrive? Perils and Promises of Synthetic Data in a Self-Generating World](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.16713/) (2024)
- [Towards Theoretical Understandings of Self-Consuming Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.11778/) (2024)
- [Splitting strategies for post-selection inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.02159/) (2021)
- [When Models Don't Collapse: On the Consistency of Iterative MLE](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.19046/) (2025)
- [When Sample Selection Bias Precipitates Model Collapse](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.13732/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Recursive synthetic-data training can degrade a fitted model, but its effects on the variable-screening stage that precedes model fitting are less understood. When each generation labels data for the next, a marginal screener ranks variables against the current pseudo-label target rather than the original response. Across generations, this target drift can erode or reverse the active--inactive score margin and cause screening to discard variables that clean-label screening would retain. We call this process screening collapse. In a Gaussian linear model with minimum-norm recursive generators, we establish finite-sample screening bounds, characterize a late-generation information-loss limit, and derive a minimax impossibility result. Screening collapse can precede and compound ordinary model collapse: omitted variables incur a covariance-weighted loss that no refit restricted to the selected variables can eliminate, while recursive labels further degrade estimation on the retained variables. We also examine two approaches to mitigating screening collapse. Fixed-fraction real-label retention preserves a clean-label component but leaves resolution fixed, whereas data accumulation can avoid screening collapse if the pooled target preserves a positive margin and the growing sample resolves it. Numerical experiments on gene-expression data support the theoretical findings.