# PMB-NN: Physiological-Model-Based Neural Network for Glucose Forecasting in Type 1 Diabetes

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.15456 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.15456/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 4 of its 18 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 11 Oct 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01271/) (2018)
- [AZT1D: A Real-World Dataset for Type 1 Diabetes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.14789/) (2025)
- [PMB-NN: Physiology-Centred Hybrid AI for Personalized Hemodynamic Monitoring from Photoplethysmography](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.10745/) (2025)
- [Hybrid Physics-AI Framework of Body Center of Mass Dynamics from Wrist-Worn Sensors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.12304/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate, physiologically consistent glucose forecasts could help people with type 1 diabetes respond to impending excursions. We applied our physiological-model-based neural network (PMB--NN) framework to glucose forecasting. A temporal convolutional network (TCN) used 180 min of history, constrained during training by a personalized four-parameter physiological model. The main PMB--NN combined forecast and neural--physiological agreement losses; a three-term variant additionally fitted physiological predictions to measured glucose. Data comprised 6--8 weeks of continuous glucose monitoring, pump, and meal records from 25 AZT1D participants. Person-specific models used chronological 70/10/20 train/validation/test splits and 30-, 60-, and 120-min horizons. Median mean absolute errors were 16.24, 25.00, and 30.20 mg/dL with basal insulin records and 15.38, 24.21, and 31.79 mg/dL before these records became available. In the latter setting, PMB--NN had the lowest median error at 30 and 60 min; it outperformed the physiological model alone in all six settings. In input-increase tests, glucose predictions changed in the expected direction for 85% of correction boluses and 100% of carbohydrate rescues, versus 57% for active insulin and 56% for active carbohydrates. Most standalone physiological fits showed locally distinguishable parameter effects, with glucose-related coefficients more stable under resampling than insulin- or carbohydrate-related coefficients. The three-term variant improved hyperglycaemia accuracy with basal records, but did not significantly change overall MAE and reduced directional plausibility in three tests. PMB--NN combines personalized forecasting with an explicit physiological model, allowing assessment of predictive accuracy, physiological response behavior, and participant-specific coefficients.