# From Rainfall to Road-Network Functionality: Transferable Graph Forecasting for Flood-Disrupted Transportation Networks

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.14622 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.14622/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 7 of its 43 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Oct 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04875/) (2017)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [Graph WaveNet for Deep Spatial-Temporal Graph Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00121/) (2019)
- [Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02842/) (2020)
- [Decoupled Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.09112/) (2022)
- [Cross-city Few-Shot Traffic Forecasting via Traffic Pattern Bank](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.09727/) (2023)
- [A Deep Learning Approach for Network-wide Dynamic Traffic Prediction during Hurricane Evacuation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.12505/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Extreme rainfall can rapidly degrade road-network functionality (RNF), disrupting emergency mobility, accessibility, evacuation, logistics, and infrastructure restoration. Existing flood-transportation impact models are often difficult to deploy across regions because they rely on local calibration, intensive simulation workflows or target-region retraining. This study proposes G-R2R, a transferable spatiotemporal graph-learning framework that reframes rainfall-induced road-network disruption as a region-conditioned, topology-flexible graph forecasting problem for unseen transportation networks. The framework integrates ego-centered subgraph sampling, terrain-conditioned graph representation, region-conditioned dual-level static encoding, and dynamic rainfall-network feature learning. Static geographic and infrastructure attributes are fused with rainfall forcing and recent RNF states to forecast node-level RNF across heterogeneous road networks. G-R2R is evaluated using simulation-derived RNF sequences from ten flood-prone regions in Wenzhou, China, under unseen-region testing protocols. It outperforms representative forecasting baselines, achieving a stabilized MAPE of 2.33% and R2 of 0.855 under the fixed unseen-region benchmark. Leave-one-area-out evaluation yields stabilized MAPE values of 2.30%-3.54%. Ablation analysis supports the contributions of the terrain-conditioned graph representation and dual-level static encoding. A historical-event replay of Typhoon Fitow further shows that G-R2R reproduces principal temporal trajectories and node-level spatial patterns of the simulation-derived RNF reference under observed rainfall forcing without target-region retraining. These results support rapid and transferable node-level RNF forecasting across the regional road-network domains represented in this study.