# Predict Before You Modify: Learning Improvement Dynamics for Self-Evolving Agents

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13991 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.13991/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 21 of its 26 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [Reflexion: Language Agents with Verbal Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11366/) (2023)
- [Self-Refine: Iterative Refinement with Self-Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17651/) (2023)
- [GEPA: Reflective Prompt Evolution Can Outperform Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.19457/) (2025)
- [AFlow: Automating Agentic Workflow Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10762/) (2024)
- [Automated Design of Agentic Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.08435/) (2024)
- [Agentic Context Engineering: Evolving Contexts for Self-Improving Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.04618/) (2025)
- [Darwin Godel Machine: Open-Ended Evolution of Self-Improving Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.22954/) (2025)
- [Meta-Harness: End-to-End Optimization of Model Harnesses](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.28052/) (2026)
- [ReasoningBank: Scaling Agent Self-Evolving with Reasoning Memory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25140/) (2025)
- [Neural Architecture Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.07233/) (2018)
- [AgentSquare: Automatic LLM Agent Search in Modular Design Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.06153/) (2024)
- [Agentic Harness Engineering: Observability-Driven Automatic Evolution of Coding-Agent Harnesses](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.25850/) (2026)
- [Self-Harness: Harnesses That Improve Themselves](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.09498/) (2026)
- [Towards Robust Mathematical Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.01846/) (2025)
- [Group-Evolving Agents: Open-Ended Self-Improvement via Experience Sharing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.04837/) (2026)
- [From Failed Trajectories to Reliable LLM Agents: Diagnosing and Repairing Harness Flaws](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.06324/) (2026)
- [Self-Evolving World Models for LLM Agent Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.30639/) (2026)
- [DREvo: Distilling Recalibrated Historical Experience for Harness Self-Evolution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.26722/) (2026)
- [APRES: An Agentic Paper Revision and Evaluation System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.03142/) (2026)
- [Knowledge-Centric Self-Improvement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.19592/) (2026)
- [Neural Change Prediction: Relating Software Changes to Their Effects and Vice Versa](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.03378/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Self-evolving agents improve through repeated cycles of modification and evaluation. However, existing methods receive feedback on modifications only after costly evaluations, and aggregate scores may obscure distinctions between failures that require different repairs. We introduce predictive self-evolution through an editable Improvement Dynamics Model (IDM). Before evaluation, the IDM predicts task-level outcomes of a proposed modification and guides an optional revision. After evaluation, past modifications and their observed outcomes are used to improve the IDM, allowing predictive knowledge to accumulate across generations. The system can thus improve how it solves tasks, proposes modifications, and predicts their effects. Building on HyperAgents, we evaluate this approach across multilingual coding, paper review, robotics reward design, and Olympiad-level mathematical grading. Our approach outperforms HyperAgents across all four domains, with up to 46% higher average performance over generations. Gains also persist under matched token budgets that include both agent evolution and task evaluation, and extend to held-out tasks. Forecast accuracy improves as the IDM evolves, and the learned predictive knowledge transfers to improve evolution in a new domain.